Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30615112›Full record

ArticleEuropean heart journal2019

Data-driven discovery and validation of circulating blood-based biomarkers associated with prevalent atrial fibrillation.

Winnie Chua, Yanish Purmah, Victor R Cardoso, Georgios V Gkoutos, Samantha P Tull, Georgiana Neculau, Mark R Thomas, Dipak Kotecha, Gregory Y H Lip, Paulus Kirchhof and 1 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European heart journal, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 93 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
93citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
11.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

93 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 147 citations in OpenAlex.

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  6. Predicting recurrent atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: a systematic review of prognostic models.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2020
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  15. A novel technique for vein of Marshall blood sampling and its application in assessing atrial remodeling in atrial fibrillation.Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society · 2025
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33 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Winnie ChuaInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Yanish PurmahInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Victor R CardosoInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Georgios V GkoutosInstitute of Cancer and Genomic Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Samantha P TullInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Georgiana NeculauDepartment of Cardiology, Sandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust, Birmingham, UK.
Mark R ThomasInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Dipak KotechaInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Gregory Y H LipInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Paulus KirchhofInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Larissa FabritzInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
University of Birmingham · GBSandwell & West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust · GBUniversity Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust · GB

Funding

British Heart Foundation FS/13/43/30324British Heart Foundation PG/17/30/32961Department of Health CDF-2015-08-074
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsUndetected atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major health concern. Blood biomarkers associated with AF could simplify patient selection for screening and further inform ongoing research towards stratified prevention and treatment of AF. METHODS AND

resultsForty common cardiovascular biomarkers were quantified in 638 consecutive patients referred to hospital [mean ± standard deviation age 70 ± 12 years, 398 (62%) male, 294 (46%) with AF] with known AF or ≥2 CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors. Paroxysmal or silent AF was ruled out by 7-day ECG monitoring. Logistic regression with forward selection and machine learning algorithms were used to determine clinical risk factors, imaging parameters, and biomarkers associated with AF. Atrial fibrillation was significantly associated with age [bootstrapped odds ratio (OR) per year = 1.060, 95% confidence interval (1.04-1.10); P = 0.001], male sex [OR = 2.022 (1.28-3.56); P = 0.008], body mass index [BMI, OR per unit = 1.060 (1.02-1.12); P = 0.003], elevated brain natriuretic peptide [BNP, OR per fold change = 1.293 (1.11-1.63); P = 0.002], elevated fibroblast growth factor-23 [FGF-23, OR = 1.667 (1.36-2.34); P = 0.001], and reduced TNF-related apoptosis-induced ligand-receptor 2 [TRAIL-R2, OR = 0.242 (0.14-0.32); P = 0.001], but not other biomarkers. Biomarkers improved the prediction of AF compared with clinical risk factors alone (net reclassification improvement = 0.178; P < 0.001). Both logistic regression and machine learning predicted AF well during validation [area under the receiver-operator curve = 0.684 (0.62-0.75) and 0.697 (0.63-0.76), respectively].

conclusionThree simple clinical risk factors (age, sex, and BMI) and two biomarkers (elevated BNP and elevated FGF-23) identify patients with AF. Further research is warranted to elucidate FGF-23 dependent mechanisms of AF.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationAgedAged, 80 and overBiomarkersCohort StudiesFemaleFibroblast Growth Factor-23Fibroblast Growth FactorsHumansMachine LearningMaleMiddle AgedNatriuretic Peptide, BrainRisk FactorsBiomarkersFGF23 protein, humanFibroblast Growth Factor-23Fibroblast Growth FactorsNatriuretic Peptide, BrainAtrial fibrillationBiomarkersBNPFGF-23Machine learningValidation

Identifiers

PMID30615112
PMCPMC6475521
OpenAlexW2910737182

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.