Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30606278›Full record

ReviewPsychological medicine2019

Do natural experiments have an important future in the study of mental disorders?

Anita Thapar, Michael Rutter

Open access · hybridAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Psychological medicine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
8.3field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 51 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. The Evolving ADHD Phenotype in the Externalizing Context.The American journal of psychiatry · 2026
    Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Mental-Health Trajectories of U.S. Parents With Young Children During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Universal Introduction of Risk.Clinical psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science · 2023
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Parenting in the Context of the Child: Genetic and Social Processes.Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development · 2022
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Genetic Advances in Autism.Journal of autism and developmental disorders · 2021
    Review
  19. Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Anita ThaparChild & Adolescent Psychiatry Section, Division of Psychological Medicine and Clinical Neurosciences,MRC Centre for Neuropsychiatric Genetics and Genomics, Cardiff University School of Medicine,Hadyn Ellis Building, Maindy Road, Cathays, Cardiff, CF24 4HQ,UK.
Michael RutterMRC SGDP Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College,London,UK.
Cardiff University · GBKing's College London · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/L010305/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

There is an enormous interest in identifying the causes of psychiatric disorders but there are considerable challenges in identifying which risks are genuinely causal. Traditionally risk factors have been inferred from observational designs. However, association with psychiatric outcome does not equate to causation. There are a number of threats that clinicians and researchers face in making causal inferences from traditional observational designs because adversities or exposures are not randomly allocated to individuals. Natural experiments provide an alternative strategy to randomized controlled trials as they take advantage of situations whereby links between exposure and other variables are separated by naturally occurring events or situations. In this review, we describe a growing range of different types of natural experiment and highlight that there is a greater confidence about findings where there is a convergence of findings across different designs. For example, exposure to hostile parenting is consistently found to be associated with conduct problems using different natural experiment designs providing support for this being a causal risk factor. Different genetically informative designs have repeatedly found that exposure to negative life events and being bullied are linked to later depression. However, for exposure to prenatal cigarette smoking, while findings from natural experiment designs are consistent with a causal effect on offspring lower birth weight, they do not support the hypothesis that intra-uterine cigarette smoking has a causal effect on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and conduct problems and emerging findings highlight caution about inferring causal effects on bipolar disorder and schizophrenia.

Indexed as

RiskAdultCausalityChildForecastingGene-Environment InteractionGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseHumansMental DisordersParentingPrevalenceProbabilityResearch DesignCausalcausesenvironmentepidemiologygeneticsnatural experimentspsychiatric disorders

Identifiers

PMID30606278
PMCPMC6498787
OpenAlexW2907530472

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.