Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30601826›Full record

ArticlePloS one2019

The quest for an optimal alpha.

Jeff Miller, Rolf Ulrich

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Jeff MillerDepartment of Psychology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0003-2718-3153
Rolf UlrichResearch Group for Cognition and Perception, Department of Psychology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Researchers who analyze data within the framework of null hypothesis significance testing must choose a critical "alpha" level, α, to use as a cutoff for deciding whether a given set of data demonstrates the presence of a particular effect. In most fields, α = 0.05 has traditionally been used as the standard cutoff. Many researchers have recently argued for a change to a more stringent evidence cutoff such as α = 0.01, 0.005, or 0.001, noting that this change would tend to reduce the rate of false positives, which are of growing concern in many research areas. Other researchers oppose this proposed change, however, because it would correspondingly tend to increase the rate of false negatives. We show how a simple statistical model can be used to explore the quantitative tradeoff between reducing false positives and increasing false negatives. In particular, the model shows how the optimal α level depends on numerous characteristics of the research area, and it reveals that although α = 0.05 would indeed be approximately the optimal value in some realistic situations, the optimal α could actually be substantially larger or smaller in other situations. The importance of the model lies in making it clear what characteristics of the research area have to be specified to make a principled argument for using one α level rather than another, and the model thereby provides a blueprint for researchers seeking to justify a particular α level.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalFalse Negative ReactionsFalse Positive ReactionsResearch DesignSample Size

Identifiers

PMID30601826
PMCPMC6314595

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.