ArticleWorld psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)2019
Estimating the risk of PTSD in recent trauma survivors: results of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP).
Article in World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 95 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Use of Cannabidiol (CBD) Oil in the Treatment of PTSD: A Placebo-Controlled Randomized Clinical Trial
Effects of Antagonistic Actions in Response to Trauma Exposure
Who cites it
95 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 199 citations in OpenAlex.
- Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis Identifies Risk Factors for Acute and Persistent Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Depression Symptoms Following Trauma.Depression and anxiety · 2026Pooled it
- Colors of the mind: a meta-analysis of creative arts therapy as an approach for post-traumatic stress disorder intervention.BMC psychology · 2025Pooled it
- International meta-analysis of PTSD genome-wide association studies identifies sex- and ancestry-specific genetic risk loci.Nature communications · 2019Pooled it
- A longitudinal assessment of posttraumatic stress symptoms and pain catastrophizing after injury.Rehabilitation psychology · 2023Trial
- A clinician-monitored 'PTSD Coach' intervention: findings from two pilot feasibility and acceptability studies in a resource-constrained setting.European journal of psychotraumatology · 2022Trial
- Double trouble: Do symptom severity and duration interact to predicting treatment outcomes in adolescent depression?Behaviour research and therapy · 2020Trial
- A Randomized Clinical Trial of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia to Augment Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Treatment in Survivors of Interpersonal Violence.Psychotherapy and psychosomaticsTrial
- Resilience Among Displaced and Non-Displaced Ukrainian Women During the War: An Exploratory Cluster Analysis.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Altered amygdala and striatal responsivity and prediction error encoding of temporal reward dynamics in post-trauma psychopathology.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2026Article
- The First Application of Trauma Event Centrality to Neurobiological Research: Assessing Cortisol Reactivity and Moderating Effects of Interpersonal Trauma.The Psychiatric quarterly · 2026Article
- Network structure analysis of post-traumatic stress and depressive symptoms among college students: identification of central and bridge symptoms.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Article
- Gender differences in early posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms: a network analysis.European journal of psychotraumatology · 2025Article
- Article
- Emotional Reactions to the Oklahoma City Bombing in Relation to Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Directly Exposed Survivors.Traumatology · 2025Article
- Examining Trauma Cognitions as a Mechanism of the BRITE Intervention for Female-Identifying Individuals with PTSD Symptoms and Alcohol Misuse.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Unveiling the neglected role of the intensity of acute stress disorder in the prediction of full- and sub-threshold posttraumatic stress disorder: looking beyond the diagnosis.Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology · 2025Article
- Hospitalizations with post-traumatic stress disorder in France between 2013 and 2022: a nationwide retrospective study.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2025Article
- Predictors of acute stress disorder following a military maritime accident.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Article
- Can generative AI assess PTSD? A clinical validation study of transcribed and direct audio input modalities.BMJ digital health & AI · 2025Article
- Trauma, resilience and significant relationships: Sex differences in protective factors for military mental health.The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry · 2025Article
35 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
18 authors at 13 institutions in 6 countries.
Funding
Abstract
A timely determination of the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prerequisite for efficient service delivery and prevention. We provide a risk estimate tool allowing a calculation of individuals' PTSD likelihood from early predictors. Members of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP) shared individual participants' item-level data from ten longitudinal studies of civilian trauma survivors admitted to acute care centers in six countries. Eligible participants (N=2,473) completed an initial clinical assessment within 60 days of trauma exposure, and at least one follow-up assessment 4-15 months later. The Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-IV (CAPS) evaluated PTSD symptom severity and diagnostic status at each assessment. Participants' education, prior lifetime trauma exposure, marital status and socio-economic status were assessed and harmonized across studies. The study's main outcome was the likelihood of a follow-up PTSD given early predictors. The prevalence of follow-up PTSD was 11.8% (9.2% for male participants and 16.4% for females). A logistic model using early PTSD symptom severity (initial CAPS total score) as a predictor produced remarkably accurate estimates of follow-up PTSD (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.976). Adding respondents' female gender, lower education, and exposure to prior interpersonal trauma to the model yielded higher PTSD likelihood estimates, with similar model accuracy (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.941). The current model could be adjusted for other traumatic circumstances and accommodate risk factors not captured by the ICPP (e.g., biological, social). In line with their use in general medicine, risk estimate models can inform clinical choices in psychiatry. It is hoped that quantifying individuals' PTSD risk will be a first step towards systematic prevention of the disorder.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.