Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30597603›Full record

SynthesisBritish journal of clinical pharmacology2019

Systematic external evaluation of published population pharmacokinetic models of mycophenolate mofetil in adult kidney transplant recipients co-administered with tacrolimus.

Huan-Xi Zhang, Chang-Cheng Sheng, Long-Shan Liu, Bi Luo, Qian Fu, Qun Zhao, Jun Li, Yan-Feng Liu, Rong-Hai Deng, Zheng Jiao and 1 more

Abstract readEvaluation StudySystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in British journal of clinical pharmacology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  19. How to Handle Delayed or Missed Doses: A Population Pharmacokinetic Perspective.European journal of drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics · 2020
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Huan-Xi ZhangOrgan Transplant Centre, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Chang-Cheng ShengDepartment of Pharmacy, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.ORCID 0000-0001-5844-0154
Long-Shan LiuOrgan Transplant Centre, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Bi LuoDepartment of Pharmacy, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Qian FuOrgan Transplant Centre, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Qun ZhaoDepartment of Pharmacy, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Jun LiOrgan Transplant Centre, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Yan-Feng LiuDepartment of urology, Shenzhen People's Hospital, Shenzhen, China.
Rong-Hai DengOrgan Transplant Centre, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Zheng JiaoDepartment of Pharmacy, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.ORCID 0000-0001-7999-7162
Chang-Xi WangOrgan Transplant Centre, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.ORCID 0000-0002-1282-3341

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsVarious mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) population pharmacokinetic (popPK) models have been developed to describe its PK characteristics and facilitate its optimal dosing in adult kidney transplant recipients co-administered with tacrolimus. However, the external predictive performance has been unclear. Thus, this study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the external predictability of published MMF popPK models in such populations and investigate the potential influencing factors.

methodsThe external predictability of qualified popPK models was evaluated using an independent dataset. The evaluation included prediction- and simulation-based diagnostics, and Bayesian forecasting. In addition, factors influencing model predictability, especially the impact of structural models, were investigated.

resultsFifty full PK profiles from 45 patients were included in the evaluation dataset and 11 published popPK models were identified and evaluated. In prediction-based diagnostics, the prediction error within ±30% was less than 50% in most published models. The prediction- and variability-corrected visual predictive check and posterior predictive check showed large discrepancies between the observations and simulations in most models. Moreover, the normalized prediction distribution errors of all models did not follow a normal distribution. Bayesian forecasting demonstrated an improvement in the model predictability. Furthermore, the predictive performance of two-compartment (2CMT) models incorporating the enterohepatic circulation (EHC) process was not superior to that of conventional 2CMT models.

conclusionsThe published models showed large variability and unsatisfactory predictive performance, which indicated that therapeutic drug monitoring was necessary for MMF clinical application. Further studies incorporating potential covariates need to be conducted to investigate the key factors influencing model predictability of MMF.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalAdultAgedArea Under CurveDatasets as TopicDose-Response Relationship, DrugDrug InteractionsDrug MonitoringDrug Therapy, CombinationFemaleGraft RejectionHumansImmunosuppressive AgentsKidney TransplantationMaleMiddle AgedImmunosuppressive AgentsMycophenolic AcidTacrolimusadult kidney transplant recipientsenterohepatic circulationexternal evaluationmycophenolate mofetilpopulation pharmacokinetics

Identifiers

PMID30597603
PMCPMC6422729

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.