Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30594138›Full record

ArticleBMC medical research methodology2018

Machine learning methodologies versus cardiovascular risk scores, in predicting disease risk.

Alexandros C Dimopoulos, Mara Nikolaidou, Francisco Félix Caballero, Worrawat Engchuan, Albert Sanchez-Niubo, Holger Arndt, José Luis Ayuso-Mateos, Josep Maria Haro, Somnath Chatterji, Ekavi N Georgousopoulou and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Alexandros C DimopoulosDepartment of Nutrition and Dietetics, School of Health Science and Education, Harokopio University, Athens, Greece.
Mara NikolaidouDepartment of Informatics & Telematics, School of Digital Technology, Harokopio University, Athens, Greece.
Francisco Félix CaballeroDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Worrawat EngchuanThe Centre for Applied Genomics, Genetics and Genome Biology, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Albert Sanchez-NiuboParc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Barcelona, Spain.
Holger ArndtSPRING TECHNO GMBH & Co. KG, Bremen, Germany.
José Luis Ayuso-MateosDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Josep Maria HaroCIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain.
Somnath ChatterjiHealth Metrics and Measurement, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Ekavi N GeorgousopoulouDepartment of Nutrition and Dietetics, School of Health Science and Education, Harokopio University, Athens, Greece.
Christos PitsavosSchool of Medicine, University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
Demosthenes B PanagiotakosDepartment of Nutrition and Dietetics, School of Health Science and Education, Harokopio University, Athens, Greece. d.b.panagiotakos@usa.net.

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe use of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk estimation scores in primary prevention has long been established. However, their performance still remains a matter of concern. The aim of this study was to explore the potential of using ML methodologies on CVD prediction, especially compared to established risk tool, the HellenicSCORE.

methodsData from the ATTICA prospective study (n = 2020 adults), enrolled during 2001-02 and followed-up in 2011-12 were used. Three different machine-learning classifiers (k-NN, random forest, and decision tree) were trained and evaluated against 10-year CVD incidence, in comparison with the HellenicSCORE tool (a calibration of the ESC SCORE). Training datasets, consisting from 16 variables to only 5 variables, were chosen, with or without bootstrapping, in an attempt to achieve the best overall performance for the machine learning classifiers.

resultsDepending on the classifier and the training dataset the outcome varied in efficiency but was comparable between the two methodological approaches. In particular, the HellenicSCORE showed accuracy 85%, specificity 20%, sensitivity 97%, positive predictive value 87%, and negative predictive value 58%, whereas for the machine learning methodologies, accuracy ranged from 65 to 84%, specificity from 46 to 56%, sensitivity from 67 to 89%, positive predictive value from 89 to 91%, and negative predictive value from 24 to 45%; random forest gave the best results, while the k-NN gave the poorest results.

conclusionsThe alternative approach of machine learning classification produced results comparable to that of risk prediction scores and, thus, it can be used as a method of CVD prediction, taking into consideration the advantages that machine learning methodologies may offer.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsMachine LearningModels, CardiovascularAdultBlood PressureCardiovascular DiseasesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesReproducibility of ResultsRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSensitivity and SpecificityCardiovascular diseaseMachine learningModel performanceRisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID30594138
PMCPMC6311054

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.