ArticleOphthalmic epidemiology2019
Optimising age adjustment of trichiasis prevalence estimates using data from 162 standardised surveys from seven regions of Ethiopia.
Article in Ophthalmic epidemiology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Assessing the prevalence of trachoma in the East, North, Far North and Adamaoua regions of Cameroon, 2016-2022.International health · 2025Article
- Twenty-Three Population-Based Trachoma Prevalence Surveys in the Central and Northern Regions of Benin, 2018-2022.Ophthalmic epidemiology · 2024Article
- Model-based geostatistics enables more precise estimates of neglected tropical-disease prevalence in elimination settings: mapping trachoma prevalence in Ethiopia.International journal of epidemiology · 2022Article
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17 authors.
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Abstract
purposeThe prevalence of trichiasis is higher in females and increases markedly with age. Surveys carried out in the daytime, particularly in developing countries, are prone to find older individuals and females at home at the time of the survey. Population-level trichiasis estimates should adjust sample proportions to reflect the demographic breakdown of the population, although the most accurate method of doing this is unclear.
methodsHaving obtained data from 162 surveys carried out in Ethiopia as part of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project from 2012 to 2015, we used internal validation with both Brier and Logarithmic forecast scoring to test stratification models to identify those models with the highest predictive accuracy. Selection of partitions was undertaken by both simple random sampling (SRS) and cluster sampling (CS) over 8192 selections.
resultsA total of 4529 (1.9%) cases of trichiasis were identified from 241,139 individuals aged ≥15 years from a total of 4210 kebeles and 122,090 households visited. Overall, the binning method using 5-year bands from age 15 to 69 years, with coarser binning in 20-year age-bands above this age, provided the best predictive accuracy, in both SRS and CS methodologies and for both the Brier and Logarithmic scoring rules.
conclusionThe greatest predictive accuracy for trichiasis estimates was found by adjusting for sex and in 5-year age-bands from the age of 15 to 69 years and in 20-year age-bands in those aged 70 years and greater. Trichiasis surveys attempting to make population-level inferences should use this method to optimise surgery backlog estimates.
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