Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30591267›Full record

ArticleEpidemics2019

Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households.

Ivy K Kombe, Patrick K Munywoki, Marc Baguelin, D James Nokes, Graham F Medley

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.9field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 38 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026
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  18. Estimates for quality of life loss due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2020
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Ivy K KombeKEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI Center for Geographical Medical Research-Coast, P.O. Box 230-80108, Kilifi, Kenya; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease and Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK. Electronic address: ikombe@kemri-wellcome.org.
Patrick K MunywokiKEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI Center for Geographical Medical Research-Coast, P.O. Box 230-80108, Kilifi, Kenya.
Marc BaguelinCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
D James NokesKEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI Center for Geographical Medical Research-Coast, P.O. Box 230-80108, Kilifi, Kenya; School of Life Sciences and Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
Graham F MedleyCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease and Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
Kenya Medical Research Institute · KELondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Wellcome Trust 090853Wellcome Trust 102975
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a significant respiratory disease burden in the under 5 population. The transmission pathway to young children is not fully quantified in low-income settings, and this information is required to design interventions.

methodsWe used an individual level transmission model to infer transmission parameters using data collected from 493 individuals distributed across 47 households over a period of 6 months spanning the 2009/2010 RSV season. A total of 208 episodes of RSV were observed from 179 individuals. We model competing transmission risk from within household exposure and community exposure while making a distinction between RSV groups A and B.

resultsWe find that 32-53% of all RSV transmissions are between members of the same household; the rate of pair-wise transmission is 58% (95% CrI: 30-74%) lower in larger households (≥8 occupants) than smaller households; symptomatic individuals are 2-7 times more infectious than asymptomatic individuals i.e. 2.48 (95% CrI: 1.22-5.57) among symptomatic individuals with low viral load and 6.7(95% CrI: 2.56-16) among symptomatic individuals with high viral load; previous infection reduces susceptibility to re-infection within the same epidemic by 47% (95% CrI: 17%-68%) for homologous RSV group and 39% (95%CrI: -8%-69%) for heterologous group; RSV B is more frequently introduced into the household, and RSV A is more rapidly transmitted once in the household. DISCUSSION: Our analysis presents the first transmission modelling of cohort data for RSV and we find that it is important to consider the household social structuring and household size when modelling transmission. The increased infectiousness of symptomatic individuals implies that a vaccine against RSV related disease would also have an impact on infection transmission. Together, the weak cross immunity between RSV groups and the possibility of different transmission niches could form part of the explanation for the group co-existence.

Indexed as

Respiratory Syncytial Virus, HumanAdolescentChildChild, PreschoolCohort StudiesEpidemicsFamily CharacteristicsFemaleHumansInfantKenyaMaleModels, TheoreticalPovertyRespiratory Syncytial Virus InfectionsRural PopulationHouseholdRespiratory syncytial virusTransmission

Identifiers

PMID30591267
PMCPMC6543068
OpenAlexW2905270175

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.