Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30584106›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2019

Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries.

Jonathan J Azose, Adrian E Raftery

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  8. Review
  9. Including the gender dimension of migration is essential to avoid systematic bias in migration predictions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  10. Measuring global migration flows using online data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Weather deviations linked to undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Return Migration and Disability by Life Course Stage of Return: Evidence Against the Salmon Bias.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2024
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Jonathan J AzoseDepartment of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; jonazose@uw.edu raftery@uw.edu.
Adrian E RafteryDepartment of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; jonazose@uw.edu raftery@uw.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-6589-301X

Funding

Statistical Methods for Population ProjectionsR01HD070936 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI RAFTERY, ADRIAN E · 2012 to 2021
$3.3M
Sexually Transmitted Infection Epidemics: Bayesian Prevalence & Size EstimateR01HD054511 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI RAFTERY, ADRIAN E · 2007 to 2016
$3.2M
NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD054511NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD070936
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We propose a method for estimating migration flows between all pairs of countries that allows for decomposition of migration into emigration, return, and transit components. Current state-of-the-art estimates of bilateral migration flows rely on the assumption that the number of global migrants is as small as possible. We relax this assumption, producing complete estimates of all between-country migration flows with genuine estimates of total global migration. We find that the total number of individuals migrating internationally has oscillated between 1.13 and 1.29% of the global population per 5-year period since 1990. Return migration and transit migration are big parts of total migration; roughly one of four migration events is a return to an individual's country of birth. In the most recent time period, we estimate particularly large return migration flows from the United States to Central and South America and from the Persian Gulf to south Asia.

Indexed as

Emigration and ImmigrationHumansMexicoTransients and MigrantsUnited Statesbilateral migration flowsinternational migrationpseudo-Bayes estimation

Identifiers

PMID30584106
PMCPMC6320531

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.