ArticleJournal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN2019
Projecting ESRD Incidence and Prevalence in the United States through 2030.
Article in Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 173 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
173 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 345 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mortality outcomes associated with vascular access types in hemodialysis for ESRD: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC nephrology · 2025Pooled it
- The Impact of Digital Health Interventions on Psychological Health, Self-Efficacy, and Quality of Life in Patients With End-Stage Kidney Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Pooled it
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- Antihypertensive treatment for kidney transplant recipients.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
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- Meta-analysis of total versus partial graft excision: Which is the better choice to manage arteriovenous dialysis graft infection?Annals of Saudi medicinePooled it
- Effects of health education based on self-determination theory on hemodialysis knowledge and self-management in maintenance hemodialysis patients.Scientific reports · 2025Trial
- Urine citrate excretion identifies changes in acid retention as eGFR declines in patients with chronic kidney disease.American journal of physiology. Renal physiology · 2019Trial
- Incisional hernia after laparoscopic and robotic donor nephrectomy: analysis of 325 consecutive donors.Surgical endoscopy · 2026Article
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- Major Cardiovascular Complications of Index Kidney Transplantation Hospitalizations: A National Inpatient Sample Analysis.Transplantation direct · 2026Article
- Can preoperative parameters and histopathology of the vessels affect arteriovenous fistula outcomes? A prospective observational study.World journal of nephrology · 2026Article
- Tubular epithelial cells promote macrophage pyroptosis through PANX1-extracellular ATP-P2X7 signaling in aldosterone-dependent renal injury.Cell death & disease · 2026Article
- Safety of Semaglutide After Dialysis Initiation: An Individual-Level Pooled Analysis.Diabetes care · 2026Article
- The role of immunoproteasome in diabetes and diabetes-related complications.Genes & diseases · 2026Review
- Predicting the Future Burden of Renal Replacement Therapy in Türkiye Using National Registry Data and Comparative Modeling Approaches.Therapeutic apheresis and dialysis : official peer-reviewed journal of the International Society for Apheresis, the Japanese Society for Apheresis, the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy · 2026Article
- Clinical Outcomes Following Cervical Fusion in Patients with Dialysis-Related Spondyloarthropathy: A Systematic Review.Spine surgery and related research · 2026Review
- Medication adherence, health outcomes, and perceived social performance in Black Americans receiving hemodialysis.Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association · 2026Article
- Visceral Adipose Tissue Alters Podometrics and Renal Compensation After Uninephrectomy.Kidney international reports · 2026Article
113 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPopulation rates of obesity, hypertension, diabetes, age, and race can be used in simulation models to develop projections of ESRD incidence and prevalence. Such projections can inform long-range planning for ESRD resources needs.
methodsWe used an open compartmental simulation model to estimate the incidence and prevalence of ESRD in the United States through 2030 on the basis of wide-ranging projections of population obesity and ESRD death rates. Population trends in age, race, hypertension, and diabetes were on the basis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the US Census.
resultsThe increase in ESRD incidence rates within age and race groups has leveled off and/or declined in recent years, but our model indicates that population changes in age and race distribution, obesity and diabetes prevalence, and ESRD survival will result in a 11%-18% increase in the crude incidence rate from 2015 to 2030. This incidence trend along with reductions in ESRD mortality will increase the number of patients with ESRD by 29%-68% during the same period to between 971,000 and 1,259,000 in 2030.
conclusionsThe burden of ESRD will increase in the United States population through 2030 due to demographic, clinical, and lifestyle shifts in the population and improvements in RRT. Planning for ESRD resource allocation should allow for substantial continued growth in the population of patients with ESRD. Future interventions should be directed to preventing the progression of CKD to kidney failure.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.