ArticleVirus evolution2018
Tracking external introductions of HIV using phylodynamics reveals a major source of infections in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
Article in Virus evolution, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- A method for statistical analysis of repeated residential movements to link human mobility and HIV acquisition.PloS one · 2019Trial
- Unpacking sources of transmission in HIV prevention trials with deep-sequence pathogen data.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Phylogenetics and molecular evolution to understand and curb the HIV pandemic.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Review
- Tracing the spread and phylogeography of foot-and-mouth disease virus across East and the Horn of Africa.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- Leveraging insect-specific viruses to elucidate mosquito population structure and dynamics.PLoS pathogens · 2023Review
- Population-level viremia predicts HIV incidence at the community level across the Universal Testing and Treatment Trials in eastern and southern Africa.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Industrial mining and HIV risk: evidence from 39 mine openings across 16 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.AIDS (London, England) · 2022Article
- Evaluating whole HIV-1 genome sequence for estimation of incidence and migration in a rural South African community.Wellcome open research · 2022Article
- PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Integrating animal movements with phylogeography to model the spread of PRRSV in the USA.Virus evolution · 2021Article
- Development of a Dissemination Platform for Spatiotemporal and Phylogenetic Analysis of Avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2021Article
- HIV incidence declines in a rural South African population: a G-imputation approach for inference.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Article
- Article
- The Impact of Human Mobility on Regional and Global Efforts to Control HIV Transmission.Viruses · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Despite increasing access to antiretrovirals, HIV incidence in rural KwaZulu-Natal remains among the highest ever reported in Africa. While many epidemiological factors have been invoked to explain such high incidence, widespread human mobility and viral movement suggest that transmission between communities may be a major source of new infections. High cross-community transmission rates call into question how effective increasing the coverage of antiretroviral therapy locally will be at preventing new infections, especially if many new cases arise from external introductions. To help address this question, we use a phylodynamic model to reconstruct epidemic dynamics and estimate the relative contribution of local transmission versus external introductions to overall incidence in KwaZulu-Natal from HIV-1 phylogenies. By comparing our results with population-based surveillance data, we show that we can reliably estimate incidence from viral phylogenies once viral movement in and out of the local population is accounted for. Our analysis reveals that early epidemic dynamics were largely driven by external introductions. More recently, we estimate that 35 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20-60%) of new infections arise from external introductions. These results highlight the growing need to consider larger-scale regional transmission dynamics when designing and testing prevention strategies.
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