ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2019
Effect and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a global modelling analysis.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
65 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Consideration of intersectoral costs and benefits in health economic evaluations of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a systematic review.International journal of technology assessment in health care · 2026Pooled it
- Effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination in reducing hospitalization and mortality among the elderly: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Pooled it
- Pneumococcal disease in children in the Middle East and Northern Africa: A systematic literature review of clinical burden, serotype distribution, and vaccination programs.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Pooled it
- Appropriateness of strategy comparisons in cost-effectiveness analyses of infant pneumococcal vaccination: a systematic review.International journal of technology assessment in health care · 2023Pooled it
- Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Inactivated Vaccine to Address COVID-19 Pandemic in China: Evidence From Randomized Control Trials and Real-World Studies.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Trial
- Effect of Oral β-Glucan on Antibody Response to Ganglioside Vaccine in Patients With High-Risk Neuroblastoma: A Phase 2 Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA oncology · 2023Trial
- Immunogenicity and safety of a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine administered in a prime-boost regimen among Chinese infants: a randomized, double blind phase III clinical trial.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Trial
- Effectiveness of the 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeableHuman vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Review
- Disease burden of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis meningitis in children and adolescents: A population-based study.Medicine · 2026Article
- Economic Evaluation of Pneumococcal Vaccination in Egypt: Cost-Effectiveness, Budget Impact, and Domestic Manufacturing Potential.Vaccines · 2026Article
- A conserved glycan motif induces broadly reactive functional antibodies against the zoonotic pathogenScience advances · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of upper respiratory infections in adolescents and young adults: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Review
- Future Pneumococcal Vaccines: Shifting from Capsular Polysaccharides to Protein-Based Immunogens.Vaccines · 2026Review
- Intranasal vaccination with probiotic Escherichia coli membrane vesicles displaying pneumococcal capsular polysaccharides elicits mucosal immunity.NPJ vaccines · 2025Article
- Conceptual Methodological Framework for Incorporating Antimicrobial Resistance Considerations in Economic Models for Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2025Article
- Article
- Global Trends in Influenza and Meningitis Research: A Comprehensive Bibliometric and Visualization Analysis (1980-2024).Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2025Article
5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIntroduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has substantially reduced disease burden due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality globally. However, PCVs are among the most expensive vaccines, hindering their introduction in some settings and threatening sustainability in others. We aimed to assess the effect and cost-effectiveness of introduction of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) vaccination globally.
methodsWe assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of PCV13 introduction by integrating two models: an ecological model (a parsimonious, mechanistic model validated with data from post-seven-valent PCV introduction in 13 high-income settings) to predict the effect of PCV on childhood invasive pneumococcal disease, and a decision-tree model to predict a range of clinical presentations and economic outcomes under vaccination and no-vaccination strategies. The models followed 30 birth cohorts up to age 5 years in 180 countries from 2015 to 2045. One-way scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were done to explore model uncertainties.
findingsWe estimate that global PCV13 use could prevent 0·399 million child deaths (95% credible interval 0·208 million to 0·711 million) and 54·6 million disease episodes (51·8 million to 58·1 million) annually. Global vaccine costs (in 2015 international dollars) of $15·5 billion could be partially offset by health-care savings of $3·19 billion (2·62 billion to 3·92 billion) and societal cost savings of $2·64 billion (2·13 billion to 3·28 billion). PCV13 use is probably cost-effective in all six UN regions. The 71 countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, account for 83% of PCV13-preventable deaths but only 18% of global vaccination costs. The expected cost of PCV vaccination globally is around $16 billion per year.
interpretationOur findings highlight the value of Gavi's support for PCV introduction in low-income countries and of efforts to improve the affordability of PCVs in countries not eligible for, or transitioning from, Gavi support.
fundingWorld Health Organization; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.