ArticleScience advances2018
Urbanization affects peak timing, prevalence, and bimodality of influenza pandemics in Australia: Results of a census-calibrated model.
Article in Science advances, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed.
- Influenza-Like Illness Forecasting Using Multisource Data: Comparative Deep Learning Study.JMIR medical informatics · 2026Article
- Evolving Landscape of Emerging Virus Diagnosis: Challenges and Innovations.Molecular biotechnology · 2026Review
- Multi-scale phylodynamic modelling of rapid punctuated pathogen evolution.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Trends and factors influencing over-the-counter cold and cough medication sales in Guangzhou, China: 2011-2017.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Increased Risk of Influenza Infection During Cold Spells in China: National Time Series Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Article
- VarEPS-Influ:an risk evaluation system of occurred and virtual variations of influenza virus genomes.Nucleic acids research · 2024Article
- Measuring unequal distribution of pandemic severity across census years, variants of concern and interventions.Population health metrics · 2023Article
- Effect of Rapid Urbanization in Mainland China on the Seasonal Influenza Epidemic: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Surveillance Data From 2010 to 2017.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Persistence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia: The impact of fluctuating social distancing.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Crime, inequality and public health: a survey of emerging trends in urban data science.Frontiers in big data · 2023Review
- The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China.Viruses · 2022Article
- A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The effects of local homogeneity assumptions in metapopulation models of infectious disease.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Genomic Epidemiology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics, Gujarat, India.Emerging infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Characteristics of the 100 largest modern zoonotic disease outbreaks.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- How will mass-vaccination change COVID-19 lockdown requirements in Australia?The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2021Article
- Optimal governance and implementation of vaccination programmes to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Acceptability of sustainable mobility policies under a post-COVID-19 scenario. Evidence from Spain.Transport policy · 2021Article
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6 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We examine salient trends of influenza pandemics in Australia, a rapidly urbanizing nation. To do so, we implement state-of-the-art influenza transmission and progression models within a large-scale stochastic computer simulation, generated using comprehensive Australian census datasets from 2006, 2011, and 2016. Our results offer a simulation-based investigation of a population's sensitivity to pandemics across multiple historical time points and highlight three notable trends in pandemic patterns over the years: increased peak prevalence, faster spreading rates, and decreasing spatiotemporal bimodality. We attribute these pandemic trends to increases in two key quantities indicative of urbanization: the population fraction residing in major cities and international air traffic. In addition, we identify features of the pandemic's geographic spread that we attribute to changes in the commuter mobility network. The generic nature of our model and the ubiquity of urbanization trends around the world make it likely for our results to be applicable in other rapidly urbanizing nations.
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