Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30535715›Full record

ArticleWorld journal of urology2019

Novel nomograms to predict recurrence and progression in primary non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer: validation of predictive efficacy in comparison with European Organization of Research and Treatment of Cancer scoring system.

Hyung Suk Kim, Chang Wook Jeong, Cheol Kwak, Hyeon Hoe Kim, Ja Hyeon Ku

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In one paragraph

Article in World journal of urology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.1field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Hyung Suk KimDepartment of Urology, Dongguk University Ilsan Medical Center, Dongguk University College of Medicine, Goyang, Korea.
Chang Wook JeongDepartment of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 110-744, Korea.
Cheol KwakDepartment of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 110-744, Korea.
Hyeon Hoe KimDepartment of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 110-744, Korea.
Ja Hyeon KuDepartment of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 110-744, Korea. kuuro70@snu.ac.kr.
Seoul National University Hospital · KRDongguk University Ilsan Hospital · KR

Funding

National Research Foundation of Korea 2018R1C1B5086339
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTo develop and validate novel nomograms to predict recurrence and progression after transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) in Korean patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC).

methodsWe retrospectively analyzed the clinical data on 970 newly diagnosed NMIBC patients after TURBT between 2000 and 2013 in a single institution. We used multivariate Cox proportional hazard models to identify the significant predictors of recurrence and progression, which resulted in the construction of the nomograms predicting the 5-year probability of recurrence and progression. We internally validated the nomograms using the area under the receiver-operating characteristics' curves and calibration plots. In addition, the clinical usefulness of each nomogram was assessed and compared with that of the European Organization of Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC)-scoring system using decision curve analysis (DCA).

resultsThe significant factors related to recurrence were gross hematuria at diagnosis, previous or concomitant upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), pT1 tumor, high tumor grade, multiple tumors, and intravesical therapy. The significant predictors of progression were previous or concomitant UTUC, pT1 tumor, high tumor grade, carcinoma in situ, and lymphovascular invasion. The 5-year predictive accuracy of each nomogram was 65% for recurrence and 70% for progression, respectively. Compared with the EORTC-scoring system, the nomograms were generally well calibrated. On DCA, each nomogram presented better net benefit gains than did the EORTC-scoring system across a wide range of threshold probabilities.

conclusionsOur novel nomograms are not completely accurate, but they show a reasonable level of discriminative ability, adequate calibration, and meaningful net benefit gain for the prediction of recurrence and progression after TURBT in Korean NMIBC patients. Additional external validation will be required to generalize the nomograms which we developed.

Indexed as

NomogramsAgedAged, 80 and overDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm InvasivenessNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentUrinary Bladder NeoplasmsDisease progressionNomogramsRecurrenceUrinary bladder neoplasms

Identifiers

PMID30535715
OpenAlexW2905491316

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.