ArticlePloS one2018
Development and validation of a prognostic multivariable model to predict insufficient clinical response to methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- Higher baseline global leukocyte DNA methylation is associated with MTX non-response in early RA patients.Arthritis research & therapy · 2019Trial
- Development and validation of a clinical scoring system for the prediction of methotrexate treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis patients: a multicenter real-world study.Therapeutic advances in musculoskeletal disease · 2026Article
- Targeted drug monitoring in oncology for personalized treatment with use of next generation analytics.Discover oncology · 2025Review
- Predictive factors of methotrexate monotherapy success in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in a national referral center: a cohort study.BMC rheumatology · 2024Article
- Integrated comparison of the mRNAome in cartilage, synovium, and macrophages in osteoarthritis.Zeitschrift fur Rheumatologie · 2024Article
- Article
- Clinical prediction models of rheumatoid arthritis and its complications: focus on cardiovascular disease and interstitial lung disease.Arthritis research & therapy · 2023Review
- Machine learning identifies a profile of inadequate responder to methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis.Rheumatology (Oxford, England) · 2023Article
- Pharmacogenetic Sex-Specific Effects of Methotrexate Response in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis.Pharmaceutics · 2023Article
- Increased erythrocyte mean corpuscular volume by methotrexate predicts clinical response in psoriatic arthritis.Rheumatology (Oxford, England) · 2022Article
- Association Study ofGenes · 2022Article
- Early prediction of treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis by quantitative macrophage PET.RMD open · 2022Article
- Therapeutic drug monitoring for cytotoxic anticancer drugs: Principles and evidence-based practices.Frontiers in oncology · 2022Review
- Factors predicting addition of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs after initial methotrexate monotherapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.Clinical rheumatology · 2021Article
- What Is the Persistence to Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis, and Does Machine Learning Outperform Hypothesis-Based Approaches to Its Prediction?ACR open rheumatology · 2021Article
- Association of altered folylpolyglutamate synthetase pre-mRNA splicing with methotrexate unresponsiveness in early rheumatoid arthritis.Rheumatology (Oxford, England) · 2021Article
- Complex Machine-Learning Algorithms and Multivariable Logistic Regression on Par in the Prediction of Insufficient Clinical Response to Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis.Journal of personalized medicine · 2021Article
- Pharmacomicrobiology of Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Gut Microbiome as Predictor of Therapeutic Response.Frontiers in immunology · 2021Review
- Identification of Metabolic Biomarkers in Relation to Methotrexate Response in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis.Journal of personalized medicine · 2020Article
- Validation of a Prognostic Multivariable Prediction Model for Insufficient Clinical Response to Methotrexate in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis and Its Clinical Application in Evidencio.Rheumatology and therapy · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveThe objective was to predict insufficient response to 3 months methotrexate (MTX) in DMARD naïve rheumatoid arthritis patients.
methodsA Multivariable logistic regression model of rheumatoid arthritis patients starting MTX was developed in a derivation cohort with 285 patients starting MTX in a clinical multicentre, stratified single-blinded trial, performed in seven secondary care clinics and a tertiary care clinic. The model was validated in a validation cohort with 102 patients starting MTX at a tertiary care clinic. Outcome was insufficient response (disease activity score (DAS)28 >3.2) after 3 months of MTX treatment. Clinical characteristics, lifestyle variables, genetic and metabolic biomarkers were determined at baseline in both cohorts. These variables were dichotomized and used to construct a multivariable prediction model with backward logistic regression analysis.
resultsThe prediction model for insufficient response in the derivation cohort, included: DAS28>5.1, Health Assessment Questionnaire>0.6, current smoking, BMI>25 kg/m2, ABCB1 rs1045642 genotype, ABCC3 rs4793665 genotype, and erythrocyte-folate<750 nmol/L. In the derivation cohort, AUC of ROC curve was 0.80 (95%CI: 0.73-0.86), and 0.80 (95%CI: 0.69-0.91) in the validation cohort. Betas of the prediction model were transformed into total risk score (range 0-8). At cutoff of ≥4, probability for insufficient response was 44%. Sensitivity was 71%, specificity 72%, with positive and negative predictive value of 72% and 71%.
conclusionsA prognostics prediction model for insufficient response to MTX in 2 prospective RA cohorts by combining genetic, metabolic, clinical and lifestyle variables was developed and validated. This model satisfactorily identified RA patients with high risk of insufficient response to MTX.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.