ArticleNature communications2018
Closing the gap between palaeontological and neontological speciation and extinction rate estimates.
Article in Nature communications, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Estimating Divergence Times and Diversification Rates with the Unresolved Fossilized Birth-Death Process.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Loss of macroevolutionary species fitness explains the rise and fall of clades.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?Ecology letters · 2025Review
- The Consequences of Budding Speciation on Trees.Systematic biology · 2025Article
- Toward a Semi-Supervised Learning Approach to Phylogenetic Estimation.Systematic biology · 2024Article
- Challenges in estimating species' age from phylogenetic trees.Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology · 2024Article
- Reconciling fossils with phylogenies reveals the origin and macroevolutionary processes explaining the global cycad biodiversity.The New phytologist · 2023Article
- Conceptual and empirical bridges between micro- and macroevolution.Nature ecology & evolution · 2023Review
- The build-up of the present-day tropical diversity of tetrapods.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Forty years later: The status of the "Big Five" mass extinctions.Cambridge prisms. Extinction · 2023Review
- Combining palaeontological and neontological data shows a delayed diversification burst of carcharhiniform sharks likely mediated by environmental change.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The Occurrence Birth-Death Process for Combined-Evidence Analysis in Macroevolution and Epidemiology.Systematic biology · 2022Article
- Global diversity dynamics in the fossil record are regionally heterogeneous.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Pulled Diversification Rates, Lineages-Through-Time Plots, and Modern Macroevolutionary Modeling.Systematic biology · 2022Article
- Cell types as species: Exploring a metaphor.Frontiers in plant science · 2022Review
- Calibrating phylogenies assuming bifurcation or budding alters inferred macroevolutionary dynamics in a densely sampled phylogeny of bivalve families.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Molecules and fossils tell distinct yet complementary stories of mammal diversification.Current biology : CB · 2021Article
- gen3sis: A general engine for eco-evolutionary simulations of the processes that shape Earth's biodiversity.PLoS biology · 2021Article
- Fossil data support a pre-Cretaceous origin of flowering plants.Nature ecology & evolution · 2021Article
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4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Measuring the pace at which speciation and extinction occur is fundamental to understanding the origin and evolution of biodiversity. Both the fossil record and molecular phylogenies of living species can provide independent estimates of speciation and extinction rates, but often produce strikingly divergent results. Despite its implications, the theoretical reasons for this discrepancy remain unknown. Here, we reveal a conceptual and methodological basis able to reconcile palaeontological and molecular evidence: discrepancies are driven by different implicit assumptions about the processes of speciation and species evolution in palaeontological and neontological analyses. We present the "birth-death chronospecies" model that clarifies the definition of speciation and extinction processes allowing for a coherent joint analysis of fossil and phylogenetic data. Using simulations and empirical analyses we demonstrate not only that this model explains much of the apparent incongruence between fossils and phylogenies, but that differences in rate estimates are actually informative about the prevalence of different speciation modes.
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