ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2018
Statistical modeling of the effect of rainfall flushing on dengue transmission in Singapore.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 80 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
80 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The Impact of Climate on Human Dengue Infections in the Caribbean.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- A systematic review of dengue outbreak prediction models: Current scenario and future directions.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Pooled it
- Climate Informed Dengue Prediction and Future Risk Under a Changing Monsoon Climate in Kerala, India.GeoHealth · 2026Article
- Artificial intelligence research in journals indexed in the web of science "infectious diseases" category: a bibliometric analysis, 2016-2025.Infection · 2026Article
- Assessing the association between floods and dengue incidence in Vietnam: A time series study.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2026Article
- Epidemiological Trends, Public Health Challenges, and Strategic Control Priorities of Dengue in Bangladesh (2000-2024): A Narrative Review.Health science reports · 2026Article
- A socio-hydro-epidemiological model for simulating trade-off between dengue infections, water shortages, and adaptive behavior.iScience · 2026Article
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- Frequent introductions and climate suitability drive increasing dengue risk in Florida.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Investigating habitat preferences and host-feeding behavior of mosquito disease vectors on commercial swine farms in the USA.Parasites & vectors · 2026Article
- Refining the suitable conditions index to predict dengue fever transmission in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- How technologies are driving digital innovation in mosquito surveillance systems: a global scoping review over the past decade.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Meteorological drivers and short-term prediction of dengue fever in a tropical region of China: evidence from Hainan Province.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- The Links Between Dengue Virus, Climate and Climate Change.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2026Review
- Projecting long-term excess risks of major infectious diseases associated with future extreme weather events in Thailand.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Spatial pattern assessment of Aedes mosquito bite risk in a subtropical metropolitan area: A case study in Shenzhen.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Climate variation and serotype competition drive dengue outbreak dynamics in Singapore.Nature communications · 2025Article
20 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundRainfall patterns are one of the main drivers of dengue transmission as mosquitoes require standing water to reproduce. However, excess rainfall can be disruptive to the Aedes reproductive cycle by "flushing out" aquatic stages from breeding sites. We developed models to predict the occurrence of such "flushing" events from rainfall data and to evaluate the effect of flushing on dengue outbreak risk in Singapore between 2000 and 2016.
methodsWe used machine learning and regression models to predict days with "flushing" in the dataset based on entomological and corresponding rainfall observations collected in Singapore. We used a distributed lag nonlinear logistic regression model to estimate the association between the number of flushing events per week and the risk of a dengue outbreak.
resultsDays with flushing were identified through the developed logistic regression model based on entomological data (test set accuracy = 92%). Predictions were based upon the aggregate number of thresholds indicating unusually rainy conditions over multiple weeks. We observed a statistically significant reduction in dengue outbreak risk one to six weeks after flushing events occurred. For weeks with five or more flushing events, compared with weeks with no flushing events, the risk of a dengue outbreak in the subsequent weeks was reduced by 16% to 70%.
conclusionsWe have developed a high accuracy predictive model associating temporal rainfall patterns with flushing conditions. Using predicted flushing events, we have demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in dengue outbreak risk following flushing, with the time lag well aligned with time of mosquito development from larvae and infection transmission. Vector control programs should consider the effects of hydrological conditions in endemic areas on dengue transmission.
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