Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30512204›Full record

ArticleAddiction (Abingdon, England)2019

Illicit fentanyls in the opioid street market: desired or imposed?

Sarah G Mars, Daniel Rosenblum, Daniel Ciccarone

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Addiction (Abingdon, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 86 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
86citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
16.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

86 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 180 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  9. The Donovan Memorial Lecture: 'Fentanyl-Plus': A New Era of Fentanyl Polydrug Combinations in the North American Overdose Crisis.Journal of medical toxicology : official journal of the American College of Medical Toxicology · 2026
    Article
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  12. Early evidence of the effects of xylazine-adulterated fentanyl in Ohio.The International journal on drug policy · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
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  15. Novel adulterants in unregulated opioids and their associations with adverse events.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2025
    Article
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26 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Sarah G MarsDepartment of Family and Community Medicine, University of California San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7109-8602
Daniel RosenblumDepartment of Economics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-0056-9734
Daniel CiccaroneDepartment of Family and Community Medicine, University of California San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2355-5477
University of California, San Francisco · USDalhousie University · CA

Funding

Heroin in TransitionR01DA037820 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI CICCARONE, DANIEL H · 2015 to 2019
$3.7M
NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA037820
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIllicitly manufactured fentanyl and its analogues are appearing in countries throughout the world, often disguised as heroin or counterfeit prescription pills, with resulting high overdose mortality. Possible explanations for this phenomenon include reduced costs and risks to heroin suppliers, heroin shortages, user preferences for a strong, fast-acting opioid and the emergence of Dark Web cryptomarkets. This paper addresses these potential causes and asks three questions: (1) can users identify fentanyl; (2) do users desire fentanyl; and (3) if users want fentanyl, can they express this demand in a way that influences the supply? ARGUMENT/ANALYSIS: Existing evidence, while limited, suggests that some users can identify fentanyl, although not reliably, and some desire it, but because fentanyl is frequently marketed deceptively as other drugs, users lack information and choice to express demand effectively. Even when aware of fentanyl's presence, drug users may lack fentanyl-free alternatives. Cryptomarkets, while difficult to quantify, appear to offer buyers greater information and competition than offline markets. However, access barriers and patterns of fentanyl-related health consequences make cryptomarkets unlikely sources of user influence on the fentanyl supply. Market condition data indicate heroin supply shocks and shortages prior to the introduction of fentanyl in the United States and parts of Europe, but the much lower production cost of fentanyl compared with heroin may be a more significant factor

conclusionCurrent evidence points to a supply-led addition of fentanyl to the drug market in response to heroin supply shocks and shortages, changing prescription opioid availability and/or reduced costs and risks to suppliers. Current drug users in affected regions of the United States, Canada and Europe appear largely to lack both concrete knowledge of fentanyl's presence in the drugs they buy and access to fentanyl-free alternatives.

Indexed as

FentanylIllicit DrugsCosts and Cost AnalysisCounterfeit DrugsDose-Response Relationship, DrugDrug CostsDrug OverdoseDrug TraffickingHeroinHumansUnited StatesCounterfeit DrugsFentanylHeroinIllicit DrugsDemand-ledfentanylheroinillicit opioidsmarketsprescription opioidssupply-ledsupply shock

Identifiers

PMID30512204
PMCPMC6548693
OpenAlexW2902629504

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.