ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2018
Predicting combined effects of land use and climate change on river and stream salinity.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- Rivers of salt: the extent of salinization in European running waters.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The influence of temperature and conductivity on metabolism and Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance (PFAS) bioconcentration in Bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus).Ecotoxicology (London, England) · 2026Article
- Predictive Modeling Reveals Elevated Conductivity Relative to Background Levels in Freshwater Tributaries within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA.ACS ES&T water · 2024Article
- Predictive Understanding of Stream Salinization in a Developed Watershed Using Machine Learning.Environmental science & technology · 2024Article
- Unpredicted ecosystem response to compound human impacts in a European river.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Modeling lake conductivity in the contiguous United States using spatial indexing for big spatial data.Spatial statistics · 2024Article
- The Anthropogenic Salt Cycle.Nature reviews. Earth & environment · 2023Article
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- Article
- Indicators of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.Climatic change · 2023Article
- Effects of Saline-Alkaline Stress on Metabolome, Biochemical Parameters, and Histopathology in the Kidney of Crucian Carp (Metabolites · 2023Article
- Behavioural and physiological responses to salinization and air exposure during the ontogeny of a freshwater South American snail.Conservation physiology · 2023Article
- Can Common Pool Resource Theory Catalyze Stakeholder-Driven Solutions to the Freshwater Salinization Syndrome?Environmental science & technology · 2022Article
- Current water quality guidelines across North America and Europe do not protect lakes from salinization.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Salinization of Alpine rivers during winter months.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2021Article
- Lethal and sublethal effects of the saline stressor sodium chloride on Chironomus xanthus and Girardia tigrina.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2020Article
- River basin salinization as a form of aridity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- The limit of resistance to salinity in the freshwater cyanobacteriumEcology and evolution · 2020Article
- Response of the mollusc communities to environmental factors along an anthropogenic salinity gradient.Die Naturwissenschaften · 2019Article
- Modeling Spatial and Temporal Variation in Natural Background Specific Conductivity.Environmental science & technology · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
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Abstract
Agricultural, industrial and urban development have all contributed to increased salinity in streams and rivers, but the likely effects of future development and climate change are unknown. I developed two empirical models to estimate how these combined effects might affect salinity by the end of this century (measured as electrical conductivity, EC). The first model predicts natural background from static (e.g. geology and soils) and dynamic (i.e. climate and vegetation) environmental factors and explained 78% of the variation in EC. I then compared the estimated background EC with current measurements at 2001 sites chosen probabilistically from all conterminous USA streams. EC was more than 50% greater at 34% of these sites. The second model predicts deviation of EC from background as a function of human land use and environmental factors and explained 60% of the variation in alteration from background. I then predicted the effects of climate and land use change on EC at the end of the century by replacing dynamic variables with published projections of future conditions based on the A2 emissions scenario. By the end of the century, the median EC is predicted to increase from 0.319 mS cm
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