Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30487169›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2018

Temporal trends in use of tests in UK primary care, 2000-15: retrospective analysis of 250 million tests.

Jack W O'Sullivan, Sarah Stevens, F D Richard Hobbs, Chris Salisbury, Paul Little, Ben Goldacre, Clare Bankhead, Jeffrey K Aronson, Rafael Perera, Carl Heneghan

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 74 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
74citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

74 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Strategies to reduce the use of low-value medical tests in primary care: a systematic review.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2020
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Trial
  5. Trial
  6. Role of hormone testing in assessment of infertility.Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien · 2026
    Article
  7. Evidence-based blood tests for monitoring adults with hypertension in primary care: rapid review, routine data analyses, and consensus study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Review
  8. Laboratory and Medicine 2.1: Care for What You Wish for.International journal of laboratory hematology · 2026
    Review
  9. Article
  10. Consultant GP-led team-based continuity: a vision for sustainable primary care.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Promoting Nordic 'Green Care Practices'.Scandinavian journal of primary health care · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Observational
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Narrative and numbers.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2025
    Article
  20. Article

14 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Jack W O'SullivanCentre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK jack.osullivan@phc.ox.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3629-2546
Sarah StevensNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
F D Richard HobbsNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Chris SalisburyCentre for Academic Primary Care, Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Paul LittlePrimary Care and Population Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Ben GoldacreCentre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.
Clare BankheadCentre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.
Jeffrey K AronsonCentre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.
Rafael PereraCentre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.
Carl HeneghanCentre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.

Funding

Department of Health 12/01/52Department of Health IS-SPC-0514-10043Medical Research Council G9900264
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo assess the temporal change in test use in UK primary care and to identify tests with the greatest increase in use.

designRetrospective cohort study.

settingUK primary care.

participantsAll patients registered to UK General Practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 2000/1 to 2015/16.

main outcome measuresTemporal trends in test use, and crude and age and sex standardised rates of total test use and of 44 specific tests.

results262 974 099 tests were analysed over 71 436 331 person years. Age and sex adjusted use increased by 8.5% annually (95% confidence interval 7.6% to 9.4%); from 14 869 tests per 10 000 person years in 2000/1 to 49 267 in 2015/16, a 3.3-fold increase. Patients in 2015/16 had on average five tests per year, compared with 1.5 in 2000/1. Test use also increased statistically significantly across all age groups, in both sexes, across all test types (laboratory, imaging, and miscellaneous), and 40 of the 44 tests that were studied specifically.

conclusionTotal test use has increased markedly over time, in both sexes, and across all age groups, test types (laboratory, imaging, and miscellaneous) and for 40 of 44 tests specifically studied. Of the patients who underwent at least one test annually, the proportion who had more than one test increased significantly over time.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolCohort StudiesDatabases, FactualDiagnostic Techniques and ProceduresFemaleHumansInfantMaleMiddle AgedPrimary Health CareRetrospective Studies

Identifiers

PMID30487169
PMCPMC6260131

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.