Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30486800›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2018

A mathematical model of biomedical interventions for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in China.

Jinghua Li, Liping Peng, Stuart Gilmour, Jing Gu, Yuhua Ruan, Huachun Zou, Chun Hao, Yuantao Hao, Joseph Tak-Fai Lau

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  15. Time to consider elimination of HIV in China.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Jinghua LiDepartment of Health Policy and Management & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health and Institute of State Governance, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Liping PengDepartment of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Stuart GilmourGraduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan. sgilmour@slcn.ac.jp.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6556-0995
Jing GuDepartment of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health and Institute of State Governance, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Yuhua RuanDivision of Virology and Immunology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention (NCAIDS), Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Huachun ZouSchool of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.
Chun HaoDepartment of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health and Institute of State Governance, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Yuantao HaoDepartment of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health and Institute of State Governance, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Joseph Tak-Fai LauThe School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.

Funding

National Centre for Global Health and Medicine 30A-1007National Natural Science Foundation of China 81803334
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe new HIV treatment guidelines in China recommend antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all people living with HIV, but significant gaps in implementation still exist. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can effectively reduce the risk of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study assessed the epidemiological impact and cost effectiveness of PrEP, enhanced biomedical interventions and their combination among MSM in China.

methodsA deterministic mathematical model was developed and projected over 20 years to assess the impact of the PrEP, biomedical interventions and their combinations. Incidence and prevalence of HIV were measured, and cost-effectiveness was assessed using incremental cost (international dollars, Int.$) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

resultsA total of 0.78 million new HIV infections were estimated to occur over the next 20 years if no additional interventions are implemented among MSM. The PrEP-only strategy covering 25-75% of HIV-negative high-risk MSM can prevent 0.09-0.20 million (12.1-25.7%) new infections, at a cost of 17,277-18,452 Int.$/QALY. The optimal cost-effectiveness path is from test-and-treat to the combination strategy of test-and-treat and PrEP. Some strategies could almost eliminate new HIV infections over the next 20 years.

conclusionsPrEP, test-and-treat, and their combinations among MSM are effective and cost-effective relative to current policy. PrEP is an important and cost-effective addition to current policy in China.

Indexed as

Homosexuality, MaleModels, TheoreticalAnti-HIV AgentsChinaCost-Benefit AnalysisCosts and Cost AnalysisHIVHIV InfectionsHumansIncidenceMaleModels, EconomicPre-Exposure ProphylaxisPrevalenceQuality-Adjusted Life YearsSexual and Gender MinoritiesAnti-HIV AgentsBiomedical interventionChinaHIVMathematical modelMen who have sex with menPre-exposure prophylaxis

Identifiers

PMID30486800
PMCPMC6263536

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.