ArticlePloS one2018
Real-world unexpected outcomes predict city-level mood states and risk-taking behavior.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 46 citations in OpenAlex.
- Assessing the validity and reliability of computational phenotyping of mood.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- The Dynamical Hypothesis in Situ: Challenges and Opportunities for a Dynamical Social Approach to Interpersonal Coordination.Topics in cognitive science · 2026Review
- Signatures of reinforcement learning in natural behavior.Current directions in psychological science · 2025Article
- Negative news exposure does not affect risk or ambiguity aversion.Frontiers in psychology · 2025Article
- Affective integration in experience, judgment, and decision-making.Communications psychology · 2024Review
- A primer on the use of computational modelling to investigate affective states, affective disorders and animal welfare in non-human animals.Cognitive, affective & behavioral neuroscience · 2024Article
- Long-term, multi-event surprise correlates with enhanced autobiographical memory.Nature human behaviour · 2023Article
- Mood fluctuations shift cost-benefit tradeoffs in economic decisions.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Computational models of subjective feelings in psychiatry.Neuroscience and biobehavioral reviews · 2023Review
- Individual differences in naturalistic learning link negative emotionality to the development of anxiety.Science advances · 2023Article
- Emotions as computations.Neuroscience and biobehavioral reviews · 2023Review
- Serotonin modulates asymmetric learning from reward and punishment in healthy human volunteers.Communications biology · 2022Article
- In.To. COVID-19 socio-epidemiological co-causality.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A model of mood as integrated advantage.Psychological review · 2022Article
- Brumadinho: between prudence and probability, tragedy.Revista brasileira de medicina do trabalho : publicacao oficial da Associacao Nacional de Medicina do Trabalho-ANAMT · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Fluctuations in mood states are driven by unpredictable outcomes in daily life but also appear to drive consequential behaviors such as risk-taking. However, our understanding of the relationships between unexpected outcomes, mood, and risk-taking behavior has relied primarily upon constrained and artificial laboratory settings. Here we examine, using naturalistic datasets, how real-world unexpected outcomes predict mood state changes observable at the level of a city, in turn predicting changes in gambling behavior. By analyzing day-to-day mood language extracted from 5.2 million location-specific and public Twitter posts or 'tweets', we examine how real-world 'prediction errors'-local outcomes that deviate positively from expectations-predict day-to-day mood states observable at the level of a city. These mood states in turn predicted increased per-person lottery gambling rates, revealing how interplay between prediction errors, moods, and risky decision-making unfolds in the real world. Our results underscore how social media and naturalistic datasets can uniquely allow us to understand consequential psychological phenomena.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.