ArticlePloS one2018
Seasonal patterns of tuberculosis case notification in the tropics of Africa: A six-year trend analysis in Ethiopia.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- Temporal trends in tuberculosis incidence among the aging population in Southwest China: a retrospective study.BMC geriatrics · 2026Article
- Article
- Analyzing the seasonality of tuberculosis case notifications in the UK, 2000-2018.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- One size does not fit all: an application of stochastic modeling to estimating primary healthcare needs in Ethiopia at the sub-national level.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal Distribution of Tuberculosis in the Oromia Region of Ethiopia: A Hotspot Analysis.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- An influence of dew point temperature on the occurrence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis disease in Chennai, India.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A scoping review on climate change and tuberculosis.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
- Seasonal and socio-demographic patterns of self-reporting major disease groups in north-west Burkina Faso: an analysis of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) data.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Seasonal influence of tuberculosis diagnosis in Rwanda.Tropical medicine and health · 2021Article
- Estimating the Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Reductions in Tuberculosis Cases and the Epidemiological Trends in China: A Causal Impact Analysis.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
- Does sunlight drive seasonality of TB in Vietnam? A retrospective environmental ecological study of tuberculosis seasonality in Vietnam from 2010 to 2015.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Trend Analysis And Seasonality Of Tuberculosis Among Patients At The Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital, Eastern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Study.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2019Article
- Five-year trend analysis of tuberculosis in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia, 2015-2019.International journal of mycobacteriologyArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveSeasonal variations affect the health system's functioning, including tuberculosis (TB) services, but there is little evidence about seasonal variations in TB case notification in tropical countries, including Ethiopia. This study sought to fill this gap in knowledge using TB data reported from 10 zones, 5 each from Amhara and Oromia regions.
methodsNotified TB cases for 2010-2016 were analyzed using SPSS version 20. We calculated the quarterly and annual average TB case notification rates and the proportion of seasonal amplitudes. We applied Winters' multiplicative method of exponential smoothing to break down the original time series into seasonal, trend, and irregular components and to build a suitable model for forecasting.
resultsA total of 205,575 TB cases were identified (47.8% from Amhara, 52.2% from Oromia), with a male-to-female ratio of 1.2:1. The means of 8,200 (24%), 7,992 (23%), 8,849 (26%), and 9,222 (27%) TB cases were reported during July-September, October-December, January-March, and April-June, respectively. The seasonal component of our model indicated a peak in April-June and a trough in October-December. The seasonal amplitude in Amhara region is 10% greater than that of Oromia (p < 0.05).
conclusionsTB is shown to be a seasonal disease in Ethiopia, with a peak in quarter four and a low in quarter two of the fiscal year. The peak TB case notification rate corresponds with the end of the dry season in the two agrarian regions of Ethiopia. TB prevention and control interventions, such as efforts to increase community TB awareness about TB transmission and contact tracing, should consider seasonal variation. Regional variations in TB seasonality may require consideration of geographic-specific TB case-finding strategies. The mechanisms underlying the seasonal variation of TB are complex, and further study is needed.
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