ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2018
90-90-90 by 2020? Estimation and projection of the adult HIV epidemic and ART programme in Zimbabwe - 2017 to 2020.
Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trends in HIV prevalence, incidence, and progress towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in Malawi among individuals aged 15-64 years: population-based HIV impact assessments, 2015-16 and 2020-21.The lancet. HIV · 2023Article
- Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Workers in Zimbabwe: Comparison of Estimates Obtained Using Different Methods in Twenty Sites and Development of a National-Level Estimate.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2020Article
- Strengthening the scale-up and uptake of effective interventions for sex workers for population impact in Zimbabwe.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- PANGEA-HIV 2: Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalised Epidemics in Africa.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2019Review
- 90-90-90 by 2020? Estimation and projection of the adult HIV epidemic and ART programme in Zimbabwe - 2017 to 2020.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2018Article
- Simulating the End of AIDS in New York: Using Participatory Dynamic Modeling to Improve Implementation of the Ending the Epidemic Initiative.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)Article
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14 authors.
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Abstract
introductionThe 90-90-90 targets set by the United Nations aspire to 73% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) being virally suppressed by 2020. Using the HIV Synthesis Model, we aim to mimic the epidemic in Zimbabwe and make projections to assess whether Zimbabwe is on track to meet the 90-90-90 targets and assess whether recently proposed UNAIDS HIV transition metrics are likely to be met.
methodsWe used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to identify model parameter values which result in model outputs consistent with observed data, evaluated using a calibration score. These parameter values were then used to make projections to 2020 to compare with the 90-90-90 targets and other key indicators. We also calculated HIV transition metrics proposed by UNAIDS (percentage reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS-related mortality from 2010 to 2020, absolute rate of new infections and AIDS-related mortality, incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios).
resultsAfter calibration, there was general agreement between modelled and observed data. The median predicted outcomes in 2020 were: proportion of PLHIV (aged 15 to 65) diagnosed 0.91 (90% uncertainty range 0.87, 0.94) (0.84 men, 0.95 women); of those diagnosed, proportion on treatment 0.92 (0.90, 0.93); of those receiving treatment, proportion with viral suppression 0.86 (0.81, 0.91). This results in 72% of PLHIV having viral suppression in 2020. We estimated a percentage reduction of 36.5% (13.7% increase to 67.4% reduction) in new infections from 2010 to 2020, and of 30.4% (9.7% increase to 56.6% reduction) in AIDS-related mortality (UNAIDS target 75%). The modelled absolute rates of HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality in 2020 were 5.48 (2.26, 9.24) and 1.93 (1.31, 2.71) per 1000 person-years respectively. The modelled incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios in 2020 were 1.05 (0.46, 1.66) and 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) respectively.
conclusionsOur model was able to produce outputs that are simultaneously consistent with an array of observed data and predicted that while the 90-90-90 targets are within reach in Zimbabwe, increased efforts are required in diagnosing men in particular. Calculation of the HIV transition metrics suggest increased efforts are needed to bring the HIV epidemic under control.
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