Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30462234›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2019

Exploring causality of the association between smoking and Parkinson's disease.

Valentina Gallo, Paolo Vineis, Mariagrazia Cancellieri, Paolo Chiodini, Roger A Barker, Carol Brayne, Neil Pearce, Roel Vermeulen, Salvatore Panico, Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita and 20 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 75 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
75citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

75 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Article
  5. Interaction Between Cigarette Smoking and PARK16 on Parkinson's Disease.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Genetic and Proteomic Investigation of the Smoking-Parkinson's Disease Association.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Parkinson Disease and the Gut: A Primer for Gastroenterologists.The American journal of gastroenterology · 2025
    Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

15 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

30 authors.

Valentina GalloCentre for Primary Care and Public Health, Blizard Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Paolo VineisSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Mariagrazia CancellieriCentre for Primary Care and Public Health, Blizard Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Paolo ChiodiniMedical Statistics Unit, University of Campania 'Luigi Vanvitelli', Naples, Italy.
Roger A BarkerInstitute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Carol BrayneInstitute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Neil PearceEpidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Roel VermeulenJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Salvatore PanicoDipartimento di Medicina Clinica e Chirurgia, Federico II University, Naples, Italy.
Bas Bueno-de-MesquitaSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Nicola VanacoreNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Italian National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy.
Lars ForsgrenDepartment of Pharmacology and Clinical Neuroscience, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Silvia RamatDepartment of Neuroscience, Psychology, Drug Research, and Child Health, University of Florence, Careggi Hospital-University, Florence, Italy.
Eva ArdanazNavarra Public Health Institute, IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain.
Larraitz ArriolaCIBER Epidemiology and Public Health, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.
Jesper PetersonDepartment of Neurology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Oskar HanssonClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Diana GavrilaCIBER Epidemiology and Public Health, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.
Carlotta SacerdoteUnit of Cancer Epidemiology, Centre for Cancer Prevention (CPO-Piemonte), Turin, Italy.
Sabina SieriEpidemiology and Prevention Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy.
Tilman KühnDivision of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Verena A KatzkeDivision of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Yvonne T van der SchouwJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Andreas KyrozisHellenic Health Foundation, Athens, Greece.
Giovanna MasalaCancer Risk Factors and Lifestyle Epidemiology Unit, Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention, and Clinical Network (ISPRO), Florence, Italy.
Amalia MattielloDipartimento di Medicina Clinica e Chirurgia, Federico II University, Naples, Italy.
Robert PerneczkySchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Lefkos MiddletonSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Rodolfo SaracciInternational Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France.
Elio RiboliSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Funding

British Heart FoundationCancer Research UKDepartment of HealthMedical Research CouncilWellcome TrustWorld Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe aim of this paper is to investigate the causality of the inverse association between cigarette smoking and Parkinson's disease (PD). The main suggested alternatives include a delaying effect of smoking, reverse causality or an unmeasured confounding related to a low-risk-taking personality trait.

methodsA total of 715 incident PD cases were ascertained in a cohort of 220 494 individuals from NeuroEPIC4PD, a prospective European population-based cohort study including 13 centres in eight countries. Smoking habits were recorded at recruitment. We analysed smoking status, duration, and intensity and exposure to passive smoking in relation to PD onset.

resultsFormer smokers had a 20% decreased risk and current smokers a halved risk of developing PD compared with never smokers. Strong dose-response relationships with smoking intensity and duration were found. Hazard ratios (HRs) for smoking <20 years were 0.84 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-1.07], 20-29 years 0.73 (95% CI 0.56-0.96) and >30 years 0.54 (95% CI 0.43-0.36) compared with never smokers. The proportional hazard assumption was verified, showing no change of risk over time, arguing against a delaying effect. Reverse causality was disproved by the consistency of dose-response relationships among former and current smokers. The inverse association between passive smoking and PD, HR 0.70 (95% CI 0.49-0.99) ruled out the effect of unmeasured confounding.

conclusionsThese results are highly suggestive of a true causal link between smoking and PD, although it is not clear which is the chemical compound in cigarette smoking responsible for the biological effect.

Indexed as

AgedCausalityCigarette SmokingFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedParkinson DiseaseProportional Hazards ModelsProtective FactorsTime FactorsTobacco Smoke PollutionTobacco Smoke Pollutioncausal inferencecohort studyEPICNeuroEPIC4PDParkinson’s diseasepassive smokingsmokingsmoking patterns

Identifiers

PMID30462234
PMCPMC6659366

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.