Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30459301›Full record

ArticleEmerging microbes & infections2018

Characterising routes of H5N1 and H7N9 spread in China using Bayesian phylogeographical analysis.

Chau M Bui, Dillon C Adam, Edwin Njoto, Matthew Scotch, C Raina MacIntyre

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Emerging microbes & infections, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.1field-weighted citation impact, top 21% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.

Chau M BuiUniversity of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia. chau.bui@unsw.edu.au.
Dillon C AdamUniversity of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7485-9905
Edwin NjotoUniversity of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Matthew ScotchUniversity of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia.
C Raina MacIntyreUniversity of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia.
UNSW Sydney · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Avian influenza H5N1 subtype has caused a global public health concern due to its high pathogenicity in poultry and high case fatality rates in humans. The recently emerged H7N9 is a growing pandemic risk due to its sustained high rates of human infections, and recently acquired high pathogenicity in poultry. Here, we used Bayesian phylogeography on 265 H5N1 and 371 H7N9 haemagglutinin sequences isolated from humans, animals and the environment, to identify and compare migration patterns and factors predictive of H5N1 and H7N9 diffusion rates in China. H7N9 diffusion dynamics and predictor contributions differ from H5N1. Key determinants of spatial diffusion included: proximity between locations (for H5N1 and H7N9), and lower rural population densities (H5N1 only). For H7N9, additional predictors included low avian influenza vaccination rates, low percentage of nature reserves and high humidity levels. For both H5N1 and H7N9, we found viral migration rates from Guangdong to Guangxi and Guangdong to Hunan were highly supported transmission routes (Bayes Factor > 30). We show fundamental differences in wide-scale transmission dynamics between H5N1 and H7N9. Importantly, this indicates that avian influenza initiatives designed to control H5N1 may not be sufficient for controlling the H7N9 epidemic. We suggest control and prevention activities to specifically target poultry transportation networks between Central, Pan-Pearl River Delta and South-West regions.

Indexed as

AnimalsBayes TheoremChinaDisease OutbreaksEpidemicsHemagglutinins, ViralHumansInfluenza A Virus, H5N1 SubtypeInfluenza A Virus, H7N9 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanInfluenza in BirdsPhylogeographyPoultryTransportationZoonosesHemagglutinins, Viral

Identifiers

PMID30459301
PMCPMC6246557
OpenAlexW2900480660

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.