ArticleTobacco control2019
Examining the relationship of vaping to smoking initiation among US youth and young adults: a reality check.
Article in Tobacco control, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 119 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
119 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Electronic cigarettes and subsequent cigarette smoking in young people: A systematic review.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2025Pooled it
- Systematic Review and Critical Analysis of Longitudinal Studies Assessing Effect of E-Cigarettes on Cigarette Initiation among Adolescent Never-Smokers.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Investigating gateway effects using the PATH study.F1000Research · 2019Pooled it
- E-Cigarette Nicotine Delivery Among Young Adults by Nicotine Form, Concentration, and Flavor: A Crossover Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA network open · 2024Trial
- QuitNic: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing Nicotine Vaping Products With Nicotine Replacement Therapy for Smoking Cessation Following Residential Detoxification.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2021Trial
- Vaping-related lung disease: a narrative review.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Review
- The feasibility and acceptability of Live Free From E-Cigarettes (LIFFE): A web-based vaping intervention and smoking prevention program for young adults.Psychology of addictive behaviors : journal of the Society of Psychologists in Addictive Behaviors · 2026Article
- Marketing expenditures and industry transformation: are cigarette companies really shifting away from cigarettes?Tobacco control · 2026Article
- Multisystem Toxicity of E-Cigarettes in Preclinical and Clinical Studies: Pathophysiologic Effects of E-Cigarette Aerosol Exposures from Head to Toe.Annual review of pharmacology and toxicology · 2026Review
- Assessing the demand for cigarettes and e-cigarettes among US adult e-cigarette users: a cross-sectional study using a demand system approach.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Trends in adolescent smoking prevalence before and after the emergence of vaping in Australia: an interrupted time series analysis, 1999-2023.The Medical journal of Australia · 2025Article
- Trends in smoking prevalence before and after the emergence of vaping in Aotearoa/New Zealand among 14-15-year-olds identifying as Māori, Pacific, European, or Asian: an interrupted time series analysis of repeated cross-sectional data, 2003-2024.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Unreliable evidence from problematic risk of bias assessments: Comment on Begh et al., 'Electronic cigarettes and subsequent cigarette smoking in young people: A systematic review'.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2025Article
- Analysis of the Dual Use of Electronic Cigarettes and Conventional Tobacco According to the Survey on Alcohol and Other Drugs in the General Population in Spain (EDADES 2022).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Method for Observing SMOKing and vaping bEhaviours (MOSMOKE): development and validation of a systematic observation tool.BMJ open · 2025Article
- The association between race-based bullying and nicotine vaping in adolescents.Drug and alcohol dependence reports · 2025Article
- Perceptions of Health Risks and Accessibility: A Social Media-Based Pilot Study of Factors Influencing Use of Vaping and Combustible Tobacco Products.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- A novel online vaping intervention and smoking prevention program for young adults who vape: protocol for a randomized controlled trial.Addiction science & clinical practice · 2025Article
- Nicotine strength of e-liquids used by adult vapers in Great Britain: A population survey 2016 to 2024.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2025Article
59 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe 2018 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Report found substantial evidence that electronic cigarette use (vaping) by youth is strongly associated with an increased risk of ever using cigarettes (smoking) and moderately associated with progressing to more established smoking. However, the Report also noted that recent increases in vaping have been associated with declining rates of youth smoking. This paper examines the temporal relationship between vaping and youth smoking using multiple data sets to explore the question of whether vaping promotes smoking initiation in the USA.
methodsUsing publicly available, nationally representative data on smoking and vaping among youth and young adults, we conducted a trend line analysis of deviations from long-term trends in smoking starting from when vaping became more prevalent.
resultsThere was a substantial increase in youth vaping prevalence beginning in about 2014. Time trend analyses showed that the decline in past 30-day smoking prevalence accelerated by two to four times after 2014. Indicators of more established smoking rates, including the proportion of daily smokers among past 30-day smokers, also decreased more rapidly as vaping became more prevalent.
conclusionsThe inverse relationship between vaping and smoking was robust across different data sets for both youth and young adults and for current and more established smoking. While trying electronic cigarettes may causally increase smoking among some youth, the aggregate effect at the population level appears to be negligible given the reduction in smoking initiation during the period of vaping's ascendance.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.