Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30452959›Full record

ReviewJournal of theoretical biology2019

Mathematical modeling of hepatitis c virus (HCV) prevention among people who inject drugs: A review of the literature and insights for elimination strategies.

Ashley B Pitcher, Annick Borquez, Britt Skaathun, Natasha K Martin

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Journal of theoretical biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Potential Impact of Frequent Testing for Hepatitis C Virus Among People Who Inject Drugs Toward Hepatitis C Elimination in the United States.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
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  15. Barriers of linkage to HCV viremia testing among people who inject drugs in Georgia.Substance abuse treatment, prevention, and policy · 2022
    Article
  16. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Ashley B PitcherIQVIA, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Annick BorquezDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, CA, USA.
Britt SkaathunDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, CA, USA.
Natasha K MartinDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, CA, USA. Electronic address: natasha-martin@ucsd.edu.

Funding

UC San Diego Clinical and Translational Research InstituteUL1TR001442 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI FIRESTEIN, GARY S, HOGARTH, MICHAEL · 2015 to 2024
$88.3M
VirologyP30AI036214 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SUSAN JANET LITTLE · 1994 to 2026
$78.4M
HOPE Training GrantT32AI007384 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI Sara Gianella Weibel, Scott L Letendre · 1990 to 2026
$9.7M
Perturbing the HIV Reservoir with Immune StimulationR01AI118422 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SMITH, DAVID MITCHELL · 2016 to 2020
$3.8M
Modeling Structural HIV Determinants in Substance Users and related populationsR01DA037773 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MARTIN, NATASHA, STRATHDEE, STEFFANIE A. · 2015 to 2017
$1.4M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001442NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI036214NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI118422NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI007384NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA037773
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In 2016, the World Health Organization issued global elimination targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV), including an 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030. The vast majority of new HCV infections occur among people who inject drugs (PWID), and as such elimination strategies require particular focus on this population. As governments urgently require guidance on how to achieve elimination among PWID, mathematical modeling can provide critical information on the level and targeting of intervention are required. In this paper we review the epidemic modeling literature on HCV transmission and prevention among PWID, highlight main differences in mathematical formulation, and discuss key insights provided by these models in terms of achieving WHO elimination targets among PWID. Overall, the vast majority of modeling studies utilized a deterministic compartmental susceptible-infected-susceptible structure, with select studies utilizing individual-based network transmission models. In general, these studies found that harm reduction alone is unlikely to achieve elimination targets among PWID. However, modeling indicates elimination is achievable in a wide variety of epidemic settings with harm reduction scale-up combined with modest levels of HCV treatment for PWID. Unfortunately, current levels of testing and treatment are generally insufficient to achieve elimination in most settings, and require further scale-up. Additionally, network-based treatment strategies as well as prison-based treatment and harm reduction provision could provide important additional population benefits. Overall, epidemic modeling has and continues to play a critical role in informing HCV elimination strategies worldwide.

Indexed as

Hepatitis CModels, BiologicalSubstance-Related DisordersHepacivirusHumansEpidemic modelingHepatitis c virusInfectious diseasePeople who inject drugsPublic healthTransmission

Identifiers

PMID30452959
PMCPMC6522340

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.