Discriminating Alzheimer's disease progression using a new hippocampal marker from T1-weighted MRI: The local surface roughness.

Hippocampal atrophy is one of the main hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, there is still controversy about whether this sign is a robust finding during the early stages of the disease, such as in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and subjective cognitive decline (SCD). Considering this background, we proposed a new marker for assessing hippocampal atrophy: the local surface roughness (LSR). We tested this marker in a sample of 307 subjects (normal control (NC) = 70, SCD = 87, MCI = 137, AD = 13). In addition, 97 patients with MCI were followed-up over a 3-year period and classified as stable MCI (sMCI) (n = 61) or progressive MCI (pMCI) (n = 36). We did not find significant differences using traditional markers, such as normalized hippocampal volumes (NHV), between the NC and SCD groups or between the sMCI and pMCI groups. However, with LSR we found significant differences between the sMCI and pMCI groups and a better ability to discriminate between NC and SCD. The classification accuracy of the LSR for NC and SCD was 68.2%, while NHV had a 57.2% accuracy. In addition, the classification accuracy of the LSR for sMCI and pMCI was 74.3%, and NHV had a 68.3% accuracy. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, and education were used to estimate the relative hazard of progression from MCI to AD based on hippocampal markers and conversion times. The LSR marker showed better prediction of conversion to AD than NHV. These results suggest the relevance of considering the LSR as a new hippocampal marker for the AD continuum.