ArticleDemographic research
Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic.
Article in Demographic research. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Association rule mining and network analysis of the evolving comorbidity patterns in HIV inpatients in Baise, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- BAYESIAN PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL FERTILITY RATE CONDITIONAL ON THE UNITED NATIONS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS.The annals of applied statistics · 2024Article
- Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.The annals of applied statistics · 2021Article
- Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.Population studies · 2018Article
- Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term.International journal of forecastingArticle
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWhile probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic, and ART coverage.
methodsWe extend the current Bayesian probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013) to account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage in countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.
resultsWe evaluate our method using out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged.
conclusionsIn general, our projections show rapid recovery to pre-epidemic life expectancy levels in the presence of widespread ART coverage. After the initial life expectancy recovery, we project a steady rise in life expectancy until the end of the century. CONTRIBUTION: We develop a simple Bayesian hierarchical model for long-term projections of life expectancy while accounting for HIV/AIDS prevalence and coverage of ART. The method produces well-calibrated projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics up to 2100 while having limited data demands.
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