Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30419537›Full record

ArticleJournal of anxiety disorders2018

Ensemble machine learning prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder screening status after emergency room hospitalization.

Santiago Papini, Derek Pisner, Jason Shumake, Mark B Powers, Christopher G Beevers, Evan E Rainey, Jasper A J Smits, Ann Marie Warren

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of anxiety disorders, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
8.0field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 63 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Impact of self-reported cannabis use on veterans' intensive PTSD treatment outcomes.Psychological trauma : theory, research, practice and policy · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Santiago PapiniDepartment of Psychology and Institute for Mental Health Research, The University of Texas at Austin, United States. Electronic address: spapini@utexas.edu.
Derek PisnerDepartment of Psychology and Institute for Mental Health Research, The University of Texas at Austin, United States.
Jason ShumakeDepartment of Psychology and Institute for Mental Health Research, The University of Texas at Austin, United States.
Mark B PowersDepartment of Psychology and Institute for Mental Health Research, The University of Texas at Austin, United States; Baylor University Medical Center, United States.
Christopher G BeeversDepartment of Psychology and Institute for Mental Health Research, The University of Texas at Austin, United States.
Evan E RaineyBaylor University Medical Center, United States.
Jasper A J SmitsDepartment of Psychology and Institute for Mental Health Research, The University of Texas at Austin, United States.
Ann Marie WarrenBaylor University Medical Center, United States.
Texas Research Institute · USBaylor University Medical Center · US

Funding

Integrated PTSD and Smoking TreatmentK01DA035930 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN · PI POWERS, MARK B · 2013 to 2017
$857k
Machine Learning and Personalized Prognosis for Depression TreatmentR21MH110758 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN · PI BEEVERS, CHRISTOPHER G · 2016 to 2017
$430k
NIDA NIH HHS K01 DA035930NIMH NIH HHS R21 MH110758
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) develops in a substantial minority of emergency room admits. Inexpensive and accurate person-level assessment of PTSD risk after trauma exposure is a critical precursor to large-scale deployment of early interventions that may reduce individual suffering and societal costs. Toward this aim, we applied ensemble machine learning to predict PTSD screening status three months after severe injury using cost-effective and minimally invasive data. Participants (N = 271) were recruited at a Level 1 Trauma Center where they provided variables routinely collected at the hospital, including pulse, injury severity, and demographics, as well as psychological variables, including self-reported current depression, psychiatric history, and social support. Participant zip codes were used to extract contextual variables including population total and density, average annual income, and health insurance coverage rates from publicly available U.S. Census data. Machine learning yielded good prediction of PTSD screening status 3 months post-hospitalization, AUC = 0.85 95% CI [0.83, 0.86], and significantly outperformed all benchmark comparison models in a cross-validation procedure designed to yield an unbiased estimate of performance. These results demonstrate that good prediction can be attained from variables that individually have relatively weak predictive value, pointing to the promise of ensemble machine learning approaches that do not rely on strong isolated risk factors.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAdultDepressive DisorderEmergency Service, HospitalFemaleHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk FactorsSelf ReportSocial SupportStress Disorders, Post-TraumaticComputational psychiatryEmergency roomMachine learningPersonalized prognosisPrecision medicinePreventionPTSDTrauma

Identifiers

PMID30419537
PMCPMC6777842
OpenAlexW2898683220

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.