ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2018
Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatiotemporal trends, evolving seasonality and symptoms of dengue in Bangladesh, 2019-2025.New microbes and new infections · 2026Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and importation patterns of imported dengue fever in southwest border regions of China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Comparative Epidemiology and Transmission Risk Assessment of Imported and Indigenous Dengue Fever at the National and Selected Provincial Levels, China, 2005-2025.China CDC weekly · 2026Article
- The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Estimating the incidence of dengue in international air travelers from non-endemic countries between 2010-2019.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Assessing the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic regions: The case of Northern Spain.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Pandemic monitoring with global aircraft-based wastewater surveillance networks.Nature medicine · 2025Article
- Temporal shifts in dengue epidemic in Guangdong Province before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Bayesian model study from 2012 to 2022.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Mapping seasonal human mobility across Africa using mobile phone location history and geospatial data.Research square · 2025Article
- Comparing and integrating human mobility data sources for measles transmission modeling in Zambia.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Optimization and performance analytics of global aircraft-based wastewater surveillance networks.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Population genetic structure of Culex tritaeniorhynchus in different types of climatic zones in China.BMC genomics · 2024Article
- Forecasting and mapping dengue fever epidemics in China: a spatiotemporal analysis.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- Mathematical model estimation of dengue fever transmission risk from Southeast and South Asia into Japan between 2016 and 2018.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Epidemiological characteristics of imported acute infectious diseases in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2019.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Bridging landscape ecology and urban science to respond to the rising threat of mosquito-borne diseases.Nature ecology & evolution · 2022Review
- Article
- Genome-wide SNPs reveal novel patterns of spatial genetic structure inFrontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Co-benefits of nonpharmaceutical intervention against COVID-19 on infectious diseases in China: A large population-based observational study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2021Article
- Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease.Nature communications · 2021Article
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20 authors.
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Abstract
Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005-15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions.
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