Time-varying predatory behavior is primary predictor of fine-scale movement of wildland-urban cougars.

backgroundWhile many species have suffered from the detrimental impacts of increasing human population growth, some species, such as cougars (

methodsContemporary approaches to incorporate landscape availability into the assessment of habitat selection include spatio-temporal point process models, step selection functions, and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) models; in contrast with the other methods, the CTMC model allows for explicit inference on animal movement in continuous-time. We used a hierarchical version of the CTMC framework to model speed and directionality of fine-scale movement by a population of cougars inhabiting the Front Range of Colorado, U.S.A., an area exhibiting rapid population growth and increased recreational use, as a function of individual variation and time-varying responses to landscape covariates.

resultsWe found evidence for individual- and daily temporal-variability in cougar response to landscape characteristics. Distance to nearest kill site emerged as the most important driver of movement at a population-level. We also detected seasonal differences in average response to elevation, heat loading, and distance to roads. Motility was also a function of amount of development, with cougars moving faster in developed areas than in undeveloped areas.

conclusionsThe time-varying framework allowed us to detect temporal variability that would be masked in a generalized linear model, and improved the within-sample predictive ability of the model. The high degree of individual variation suggests that, if agencies want to minimize human-wildlife conflict management options should be varied and flexible. However, due to the effect of recursive behavior on cougar movement, likely related to the location and timing of potential kill-sites, kill-site identification tools may be useful for identifying areas of potential conflict.