ArticleScientific reports2018
Estimating the risk of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in a large European city.
Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Dengue and chikungunya: future threats for Northern Europe?Frontiers in epidemiology · 2024Review
- Seroprevalence of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus in Occupational Settings: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Review
- How habitat factors affect an Aedes mosquitoes driven outbreak at temperate latitudes: The case of the Chikungunya virus in Italy.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Lethal effect of blue light on Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae).Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Dengue Fever in Italy: The "Eternal Return" of an Emerging Arboviral Disease.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Review
- Scoping future outbreaks: a scoping review on the outbreak prediction of the WHO Blueprint list of priority diseases.BMJ global health · 2021Article
- Chikungunya Beyond the Tropics: Where and When Do We Expect Disease Transmission in Europe?Viruses · 2021Article
- Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysis.BMC medicine · 2020Article
- Knowledge, Attitude and Practices towards the Tiger Mosquito Aedes Albopictus. A Questionnaire Based Survey in Lazio Region (Italy) before the 2017 Chikungunya Outbreak.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- A comparative analysis of the 2007 and 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreaks and implication for public health response.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Review
- Risks Related to Chikungunya Infections among European Union Travelers, 2012-2018.Emerging infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Time elapsed between Zika and dengue virus infections affects antibody and T cell responses.Nature communications · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Outbreaks of arbovirus infections vectored by invasive Aedes albopictus have already occurred and are predicted to become increasingly frequent in Southern Europe. We present a probabilistic model to assess risk of arbovirus outbreaks based on incident cases worldwide, on the probability of arrival of infected travelers, and on the abundance of the vector species. Our results show a significant risk of Chikungunya outbreak in Rome from mid June to October in simulations with high human biting rates (i.e. when ≥50% of the population is bitten every day). The outbreak risk is predicted to be highest for Chikungunya and null for Zika. Simulated increase of incident cases in selected endemic countries has no major impact on the outbreak risk. The model correctly estimated the number of imported cases and can be easily adapted to other urban areas where Ae. albopictus is the only potential vector present.
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