Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30397144›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018

Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action.

David M Lapola, Patricia Pinho, Carlos A Quesada, Bernardo B N Strassburg, Anja Rammig, Bart Kruijt, Foster Brown, Jean P H B Ometto, Adriano Premebida, José A Marengo and 2 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

David M LapolaCenter for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, 13083-886 Campinas, SP, Brazil; dmlapola@unicamp.br.
Patricia PinhoStockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden.
Carlos A QuesadaCoordination of Environmental Dynamics, National Institute for Amazonia Research, 69080-971 Manaus, AM, Brazil.
Bernardo B N StrassburgInternational Institute for Sustainability, 22460-320 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Anja RammigSchool of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany.
Bart KruijtDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Foster BrownDepartment of Geography, Federal University of Acre, 69920-900 Rio Branco, AC, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-1877-0866
Jean P H B OmettoCenter for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil.
Adriano PremebidaGraduate Program in Sociology, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, 91509-900 Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
José A MarengoResearch and Development Coordination, Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, 12630-000 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil.
Walter VergaraWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002.
Carlos A NobreNational Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-5808-8784

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Large uncertainties still dominate the hypothesis of an abrupt large-scale shift of the Amazon forest caused by climate change [Amazonian forest dieback (AFD)] even though observational evidence shows the forest and regional climate changing. Here, we assess whether mitigation or adaptation action should be taken now, later, or not at all in light of such uncertainties. No action/later action would result in major social impacts that may influence migration to large Amazonian cities through a causal chain of climate change and forest degradation leading to lower river-water levels that affect transportation, food security, and health. Net-present value socioeconomic damage over a 30-year period after AFD is estimated between US dollar (USD) $957 billion (×10

Indexed as

BrazilClimate ChangeComputer SimulationConservation of Natural ResourcesEcosystemForestryForestsPolicyRisk AssessmentTreesadaptationagricultureecosystem serviceshydroelectricity generationmigration

Identifiers

PMID30397144
PMCPMC6243258

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.