ArticleTobacco control2020
Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke.
Article in Tobacco control, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework.Tobacco control · 2023Pooled it
- The global burden of lower respiratory infections attributable to smoking and secondhand smoke, 1990-2021, with projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the GBD 2021 study.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2026Article
- [Lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2035: trends of disease burden and future projections].Nan fang yi ke da xue xue bao = Journal of Southern Medical University · 2025Article
- Modeling the future of tobacco control: Using SimSmoke to explore the feasibility of the tobacco endgame in Korea.Tobacco induced diseases · 2023Article
- "Sugar-Sweetened Beverages" Is an Independent Risk From Pancreatic Cancer: Based on Half a Million Asian Cohort Followed for 25 Years.Frontiers in oncology · 2022Article
- Smoking Status and Functional Outcomes in Young Stroke.Frontiers in neurology · 2021Article
- Testing the Usability of Digital Educational Games for Encouraging Smoking Cessation.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Observational
- Exploiting a low tax system: non-tax-induced cigarette price increases in Taiwan 2011-2016.Tobacco control · 2019Article
- Electronic Cigarette Use and Smoking Initiation in Taiwan: Evidence from the First Prospective Study in Asia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Epidemiology and Survival Outcomes of Lung Cancer: A Population-Based Study.BioMed research international · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionAdult smoking prevalence in Taiwan rapidly declined from 26.5% in 2005 to 20.0% in 2015. Nevertheless, future projections on smoking-attributable deaths and current per capita consumption do not paint an equally bright picture.
methodsWe used SimSmoke, a tobacco control simulation model to assess the impact of tax increases and other policies by predicting past and projecting over future decades smoking rates and smoking-attributable mortality.
resultsThe model accurately depicts the decline in smoking prevalence observed in Taiwan from 2000 to 2015. Nonetheless, under the 'status quo' scenario, smoking-attributable mortality is projected to continue growing, peaking at 26 602 annual deaths in 2039 and cumulative deaths >1 million by 2044. By comparing projections with current policies with a counterfactual scenario based on the 2000 policy levels, SimSmoke estimates that tobacco control in Taiwan has been able to reduce smoking prevalence by 30% in 2015 with 450 000 fewer smoking-attributable deaths by 2060. Modified scenarios show that doubling the retail price of cigarettes and fully implementing the remaining MPOWER measures would avert approximately 45 000 lives by 2040 and 130 000 by 2060.
conclusionsTobacco will be a leading cause of death in Taiwan for the coming decades, showing yet again the long-term consequences of smoking on public health. The MPOWER package, even if adopted at the highest level with a large tax increase, is unlikely to reduce smoking prevalence to the endgame goal of 5% in the next five decades.
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