Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30389371›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of ophthalmology2019

Validated Prediction Models for Macular Degeneration Progression and Predictors of Visual Acuity Loss Identify High-Risk Individuals.

Johanna M Seddon, Bernard Rosner

Abstract readValidation Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of ophthalmology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
34citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

34 citing papers in PubMed.

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  10. Rare DysfunctionalOphthalmology science · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Johanna M SeddonDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA. Electronic address: johanna.seddon@umassmed.edu.
Bernard RosnerChanning Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

Funding

ETIOLOGIC STUDIES OF AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATIONR01EY011309 · NEI · UNIV OF MASSACHUSETTS MED SCH WORCESTER · PI SEDDON, JOHANNA M · 2003 to 2017
$9.3M
Use of Correlated Data Methods in OphthalmologyR01EY022445 · NEI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI ROSNER, BERNARD A · 2013 to 2025
$4.6M
Rare Genetic Variation in Macular DegenerationR01EY028602 · NEI · UNIV OF MASSACHUSETTS MED SCH WORCESTER · PI SEDDON, JOHANNA M · 2018 to 2022
$3.2M
NEI NIH HHS R01 EY011309NEI NIH HHS R01 EY022445NEI NIH HHS R01 EY028602
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTo determine predictive factors and risk scores for conversion to overall advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD), geographic atrophy (GA), neovascular disease (NV), and loss of vision, and to validate the model for AMD in an external cohort.

methodsProgression to advanced AMD was evaluated using stepwise survival analysis. Risk scores including genetic, demographic, behavioral, and ocular factors were derived for 3 AMD endpoints and were validated and calibrated in a large independent cohort. Vision loss of 15 or more letters was evaluated as a new endpoint in genetic analyses.

resultsEight common and rare variants in genes CFH, C3, ARMS2, COL8A1, and HSPH1/B3GALTL conferred a significantly higher risk of transition to advanced AMD. Three loci (C2, CFB, RAD51B) were associated with lower rate of progression. A protective effect was suggested for CTRB1 and PELI3. The age-adjusted area under the curve (AUC) for the composite model including 13 loci model was 0.900 over 12 years (0.896 in the validation cohort). Generally, progressors had a higher risk category and nonprogressors had a lower risk category when genetic factors were considered. Furthermore, there was heterogeneity between models for GA and NV. The model was calibrated in the validation cohort. Determinants of visual loss included age, education, body mass index, smoking, and several common and rare genetic variants.

conclusionEyes with the same baseline macular grade had a wide range of estimated probability of subsequent progression and visual loss based on the validated risk score. Identifying high-risk individuals at an earlier stage using predictive modeling could lead to improved preventive and therapeutic strategies in the era of precision medicine.

Indexed as

AgedChoroidal NeovascularizationComplement System ProteinsDisease ProgressionEye ProteinsFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenotypeGeographic AtrophyHumansMacular DegenerationMaleMiddle AgedModels, BiologicalPolymorphism, Single NucleotideComplement System ProteinsEye Proteins

Identifiers

PMID30389371
PMCPMC6469720

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.