ArticleScientific reports2018
A modeling study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men: travel, pre-exposure prophylaxis and elimination.
Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- Model-based evaluation of the impact of a potential HIV cure on HIV transmission dynamics.Nature communications · 2025Article
- A modeling study of pre-exposure prophylaxis to eliminate HIV in Taiwan by 2030.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Impact of increased diagnosis of early HIV infection and immediate antiretroviral treatment initiation on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in the Netherlands.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Article
- Benefits and harms of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies in women living with HIV.Nature medicine · 2023Article
- The Application of Systems Thinking to the Prevention and Control of Sexually Transmissible Infections among Adolescents and Adults: A Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- The Impact of Human Mobility on Regional and Global Efforts to Control HIV Transmission.Viruses · 2020Article
- The past, present and future impact of HIV prevention and control on HPV and cervical disease in Tanzania: A modelling study.PloS one · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
UNAIDS has identified the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM) as a priority for elimination. Incidence is close to the elimination threshold of one new infection per year per 1,000 individuals. However, surveillance data show that HIV strains are being imported into Denmark, mainly due to travel. We use a transmission model to predict (from 2018 to 2030) the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on incidence. Our model reflects the current epidemic and diagnosis rates in the Danish MSM community. We conduct a sensitivity analysis based on 20,000 simulations, and assume that PrEP coverage could range from zero to 50% and diagnosis rates increase up to three-fold. We predict that incidence will fall below the elimination threshold, even without the introduction of PrEP, reaching 0.87 (median, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.65-1.23) new infections per 1,000 MSM by 2030. PrEP could reduce incidence to well below the threshold, if it results in a significant increase in diagnosis rates and reduces the number of infections occurring abroad. The Danish Medicine Agency and Danish Health Authority have recommended introducing PrEP. Our study provides strong support for this recommendation, and shows the importance of Danish MSM using PrEP when abroad.
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Registered trials
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