ArticleFrontiers in psychology2018
Why Can Only 24% Solve Bayesian Reasoning Problems in Natural Frequencies: Frequency Phobia in Spite of Probability Blindness.
Article in Frontiers in psychology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Natural frequency tree- versus conditional probability formula-based training for medical students' estimation of screening test predictive values: a randomized controlled trial.BMC medical education · 2024Trial
- Can positive expectations help to improve the learning of risk literacy? A cluster-randomized study in undergraduate medical students.BMC medical education · 2022Trial
- An LLM canary in the online data coalmine: Bayesian reasoning problems as a capability-gap test for LLM contamination in online samples.Behavior research methods · 2026Article
- How general is the natural frequency effect? The case of joint probabilities.Frontiers in psychology · 2024Article
- Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension.Memory & cognition · 2023Article
- Maximizers' Susceptibility to the Effect of Frequency vs. Percentage Format in Risk Representation.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- The Effectiveness of Interventions for Increasing COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake: A Systematic Review.Vaccines · 2022Review
- Developing Computational Thinking Teaching Strategies to Model Pandemics and Containment Measures.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning.Advances in health sciences education : theory and practice · 2021Article
- Tversky and Kahneman's Cognitive Illusions: Who Can Solve Them, and Why?Frontiers in psychology · 2021Article
- Are Jurors Intuitive Statisticians? Bayesian Causal Reasoning in Legal Contexts.Frontiers in psychology · 2020Article
- The Effects of Working Memory and Probability Format on Bayesian Reasoning.Frontiers in psychology · 2020Article
- A New Visualization for Probabilistic Situations Containing Two Binary Events: The Frequency Net.Frontiers in psychology · 2020Article
- Processing Probability Information in Nonnumerical Settings - Teachers' Bayesian and Non-bayesian Strategies During Diagnostic Judgment.Frontiers in psychology · 2020Article
- Different Visualizations Cause Different Strategies When Dealing With Bayesian Situations.Frontiers in psychology · 2020Article
- Perspectives on the 2 × 2 Matrix: Solving Semantically Distinct Problems Based on a Shared Structure of Binary Contingencies.Frontiers in psychology · 2020Review
- Evidencing How Experience and Problem Format Affect Probabilistic Reasoning Through Interaction Analysis.Frontiers in psychology · 2019Article
- An Eye-Tracking Study of Statistical Reasoning With Tree Diagrams and 2 × 2 Tables.Frontiers in psychology · 2019Article
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3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer and Hoffrage, 1995). In a recent meta-analysis, McDowell and Jacobs (2017) showed that presenting a task in natural frequency format increases performance rates to 24% compared to only 4% when the same task is presented in probability format. Nevertheless, on average three quarters of participants in their meta-analysis failed to obtain the correct solution for such a task in frequency format. In this paper, we present an empirical study on what participants typically do wrong when confronted with natural frequencies. We found that many of them did not actually
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