ArticlePloS one2018
Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the African meningitis belt.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world.eLife · 2021Article
- Article
- Understanding the Role of Duration of Vaccine Protection with MenAfriVac: Simulating Alternative Vaccination Strategies.Microorganisms · 2021Article
- Meningococcal carriage 7 years after introduction of a serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine in Burkina Faso: results from four cross-sectional carriage surveys.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We previously developed a mathematical simulation of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) transmission in Burkina Faso, with the goal of forecasting the relative benefit of different vaccination programs. Here, we revisit key structural assumptions of the model by comparing how accurately the different assumptions reproduce observed NmA trends following vaccine introduction. A priori, we updated several of the model's parameters based on recently published studies. We simulated NmA disease under different assumptions about duration of vaccine-induced protection (including the possibility that vaccine-induced protection may last longer than natural immunity). We compared simulated and observed case counts from 2011-2017. We then used the best-fit model to forecast the impact of different vaccination strategies. Our updated model, with the assumption that vaccine-induced immunity lasts longer than immunity following NmA colonization, was able to reproduce observed trends in NmA disease. The updated model predicts that, following a mass campaign among persons 1-29 years of age, either routine immunization of 9 month-old children or periodic mini-campaigns among children 1-4 years of age will lead to sustained control of epidemic NmA in Burkina Faso. This validated model can help public health officials set policies for meningococcal vaccination in Africa.
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