Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30358636›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons2019

Predictive Modeling for Geriatric Hip Fracture Patients: Early Surgery and Delirium Have the Largest Influence on Length of Stay.

Garin Hecht, Christina A Slee, Parker B Goodell, Sandra L Taylor, Philip R Wolinsky

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed.

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  13. Definition of patient complexity in adults: A narrative review.Journal of multimorbidity and comorbidity · 2022
    Review
  14. Risk Factors Associated With Extended Length of Hospital Stay After Geriatric Hip Fracture.Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons. Global research & reviews · 2021
    Article
  15. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Garin HechtFrom the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery and Rehabilitation, Loyola University Medical Center, Maywood, IL (Dr. Hecht), the Quality and Safety Department, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA (Ms. Slee), the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, UCSF-Fresno, Fresno, CA (Dr. Goodell), the Clinical and Translational Science Center, University of California, Davis (Dr. Taylor), and the Department of Orthopedics, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA (Dr. Wolinsky).
Christina A Slee
Parker B Goodell
Sandra L Taylor
Philip R Wolinsky

Funding

UC Davis Clinical and Translational Science CenterUL1TR001860 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS · PI KENYON, NICHOLAS J., LYLES, COURTNEY REES · 2016 to 2025
$47.3M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001860
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAveraging length of stay (LOS) ignores patient complexity and is a poor metric for quality control in geriatric hip fracture programs. We developed a predictive model of LOS that compares patient complexity to the logistic effects of our institution's hip fracture care pathway.

methodsA retrospective analysis was performed on patients enrolled into a hip fracture co-management pathway at an academic level I trauma center from 2014 to 2015. Patient complexity was approximated using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and ASA score. A predictive model of LOS was developed from patient-specific and system-specific variables using a multivariate linear regression analysis; it was tested against a sample of patients from 2016.

resultsLOS averaged 5.95 days. Avoidance of delirium and reduced time to surgery were found to be notable predictors of reduced LOS. The Charlson Comorbidity Index was not a strong predictor of LOS, but the ASA score was. Our predictive LOS model worked well for 63% of patients from the 2016 group; for those it did not work well for, 80% had postoperative complications. DISCUSSION: Predictive LOS modeling accounting for patient complexity was effective for identifying (1) reasons for outliers to the expected LOS and (2) effective measures to target for improving our hip fracture program. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAgedDeliriumFemaleGeriatric AssessmentHip FracturesHumansInjury Severity ScoreLength of StayLinear ModelsMaleMultivariate AnalysisOrthopedic ProceduresRetrospective StudiesTime Factors

Identifiers

PMID30358636
PMCPMC6411423

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.