Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30354407›Full record

ArticleCirculation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology2018

Collagen Biomarkers and Incidence of New Onset of Atrial Fibrillation in Subjects With No Overt Cardiovascular Disease at Baseline: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Daniel A Duprez, Susan R Heckbert, Alvaro Alonso, Myron D Gross, Joachim H Ix, Jorge R Kizer, Russell P Tracy, Richard Kronmal, David R Jacobs

Open access · bronzeAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
2.2field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 33 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Role of epicardial adipose tissue in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: An emerging molecular mechanism and therapeutic potential.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2025
    Review
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Research Progress of Myocardial Fibrosis and Atrial Fibrillation.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2022
    Review
  12. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance-determined left ventricular myocardium impairment is associated with C-reactive protein and ST2 in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.Journal of cardiovascular magnetic resonance : official journal of the Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance · 2021
    Observational
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Collagen Remodeling and Fatty Acid Regulation Biomarkers in Understanding the Molecular Pathogenesis of Atrial Fibrillation.Clinical and applied thrombosis/hemostasis : official journal of the International Academy of Clinical and Applied Thrombosis/Hemostasis
    Article
  18. Interrelationship Between Inflammatory Biomarkers and Collagen Remodeling Proteins in Atrial Fibrillation.Clinical and applied thrombosis/hemostasis : official journal of the International Academy of Clinical and Applied Thrombosis/Hemostasis
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Daniel A DuprezCardiovascular Division, School of Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.).
Susan R HeckbertDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle (S.R.H.).
Alvaro AlonsoDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
Myron D GrossLaboratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (M.D.G.).
Joachim H IxNephrology Division, University of California, San Diego School of Medicine (J.H.I.).
Jorge R KizerCardiovascular Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine and Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY (J.R.K.).
Russell P TracyDepartment of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, and Biochemistry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Colchester (R.P.T.).
Richard KronmalDepartment of Statistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle (R.K.).
David R JacobsSchool of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.R.J.).
University of Minnesota · USUniversity of Washington · USEmory University · US

Funding

Institute for Clinical and Translational ResearchUL1TR001079 · NCATS · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI FORD, DANIEL ERNEST · 2013 to 2017
$60.1M
Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR000040 · NCATS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI GINSBERG, HENRY N · 2012 to 2015
$26.2M
Atrial fibrillation burden, vascular disease of the brain and cardiac MRI in MESAR01HL127659 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI HECKBERT, SUSAN R · 2015 to 2018
$7.4M
Arterial Elasticity, Subclinical, and Clinical CVD in MESAR01HL098382 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI DUPREZ, DANIEL A, JACOBS, DAVID R · 2010 to 2013
$2.7M
Cigarette Smoke and Susceptibility to Influenza InfectionR01HL095163 · NHLBI · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI JASPERS, ILONA, NOAH, TERRY L · 2009 to 2013
$2.0M
Adjunctive Use of Apyrase to Fibrinolytic TherapyR44HL095169 · NHLBI · APT THERAPEUTICS, INC. · PI CHEN, RIDONG · 2012 to 2013
$1.3M
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDYN01HC095166 · HC · UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT &ST AGRIC COLLEGE · PI TRACY, RUSSELL P · 1999 to 2001
$758k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY-FIELD CENTERN01HC095162 · HC · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI SZKLO, MOYSES A · 1999 to 2000
$694k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY--FIELD CENTERN01HC095161 · HC · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI SHEA, STEVEN · 1999 to 2001
$642k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY--FIELD CENTERN01HC095165 · HC · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY · PI BURKE, GREGORY L · 1999 to 2001
$616k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY--FIELD CENTERN01HC095160 · HC · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI SAAD, MOHAMMED F · 1999 to 2001
$592k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY-FIELD CENTERN01HC095164 · HC · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY · PI LIU, KIANG JOHN · 1999 to 2001
$511k
American Heart Association-American Stroke Association 16EIA26410001NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000040NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001079NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095159NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095160NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095161NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095162NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095163NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095164NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095165NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095166NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095167NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095168NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095169NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL098382NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL127659
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAtrial fibrosis is a hallmark of structural remodeling in atrial fibrillation (AF). Plasma procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP) reflects collagen synthesis and degradation while collagen type I carboxy-terminal telopeptide (ICTP) reflects collagen degradation. We aimed to study baseline plasma PIIINP and ICTP and their associations with incident AF in participants initially free of overt cardiovascular disease.

methodsIn a stratified sample of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, initially aged 45-84 years, 3071 participants had both PIIINP and ICTP measured at baseline. Incident AF in 10-year follow-up was based on a hospital International Classification of Diseases code for AF or atrial flutter, in- or outpatient Medicare claims through 2011 (primarily in those aged 65-84 years), or ECG 10 years after baseline (n=357). The associations of PIIINP and ICTP with incident AF were estimated using Poisson regression with follow-up time offset.

resultsBaseline PIIINP (5.50±1.55 µg/L) and ICTP (mean±SD, 3.41±1.37 µg/L) were positively related (both P<0.0001) to incident AF in a model adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and sex, with an apparent threshold (relative incidence density 2.81 [1.94-4.08] for PIIINP ≥8.5 µg/L [3.5% of the sample] and 3.46 [2.36-5.07] for ICTP ≥7 µg/L [1.7% of the sample]). Findings were attenuated but remained statistically significant after further adjustment for systolic blood pressure, height, body mass index, smoking, and renal function. Additional adjustment for other risk factors and biomarkers of inflammation did not alter conclusions.

conclusionsPlasma collagen biomarkers, particularly at elevated levels, were associated with excess risk for AF.

Indexed as

AgedAged, 80 and overAtrial FibrillationAtrial FlutterBiomarkersCollagen Type IElectrocardiographyFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPeptide FragmentsPeptidesProcollagenPrognosisBiomarkersCollagen Type Icollagen type I trimeric cross-linked peptidePeptide FragmentsPeptidesProcollagenprocollagen Type III-N-terminal peptideatrial fibrillationbody mass indexcohort studiescollagenincidence

Identifiers

PMID30354407
PMCPMC9679990
OpenAlexW2901899488

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.