ArticlePLoS medicine2018
Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe's Zambezi Valley: A mathematical modelling study.
Article in PLoS medicine, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 73 citations in OpenAlex.
- How plastic are upper thermal limits? A comparative study in tsetse (family: Glossinidae) and wider Diptera.Journal of thermal biology · 2023Pooled it
- The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2021Pooled it
- Modeling framework to demonstrate elimination of a vector population: Tsetse elimination in Chad.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Geospatial Analysis of Tsetse Infestation and Animal African Trypanosomiasis in Busia County, Kenya.Journal of parasitology research · 2026Article
- A CRISPR-based diagnostic tool to survey drug resistance in human African trypanosomiasis.Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy · 2025Article
- Ecological zonation and phylogeographic structure ofInternational journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife · 2025Article
- Species distribution modeling to predict tsetse fly (Glossina spp.) habitat suitability in Kenya.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Optimization of Quinazolines for Inhibition ofACS medicinal chemistry letters · 2025Article
- Viviparity and obligate blood feeding: tsetse flies as a unique research system to study climate change.Current opinion in insect science · 2025Review
- Impact of climate change and variability on the occurrence and distribution of Trypanosoma vectors in The Gambia.Parasitology research · 2025Article
- Mechanisms of life cycle simplification in African trypanosomes.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Phenotypic divergence ofEcology and evolution · 2024Article
- Heatwaves are detrimental to fertility in the viviparous tsetse fly.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- No evidence for direct thermal carryover effects on starvation tolerance in the obligate blood-feeder,Ecology and evolution · 2023Article
- Spatial distribution of Glossina morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) in Zambia: A vehicle-mounted sticky trap survey and Maxent species distribution model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Investigating the unaccounted ones: insights on age-dependent reproductive loss in a viviparous fly.Frontiers in ecology and evolution · 2023Article
- Evidence-based advice on timing and location of tsetse control measures in Shimba Hills National reserve, Kenya.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Livestock health and disease economics: a scoping review of selected literature.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
- Parasite co-infection: an ecological, molecular and experimental perspective.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Satellite-based modelling of potential tsetse (Glossina pallidipes) breeding and foraging sites using teneral and non-teneral fly occurrence data.Parasites & vectors · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundQuantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains scant, and predictions rely largely on extrapolation of statistical correlations. We aimed to develop a mechanistic model to test whether recent increases in temperature in the Mana Pools National Park of the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe could account for the simultaneous decline of tsetse flies, the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis. METHODS AND
findingsThe model we developed incorporates the effects of temperature on mortality, larviposition, and emergence rates and is fitted to a 27-year time series of tsetse caught from cattle. These catches declined from an average of c. 50 flies per animal per afternoon in 1990 to c. 0.1 in 2017. Since 1975, mean daily temperatures have risen by c. 0.9°C and temperatures in the hottest month of November by c. 2°C. Although our model provided a good fit to the data, it cannot predict whether or when extinction will occur.
conclusionsThe model suggests that the increase in temperature may explain the observed collapse in tsetse abundance and provides a first step in linking temperature to trypanosomiasis risk. If the effect at Mana Pools extends across the whole of the Zambezi Valley, then transmission of trypanosomes is likely to have been greatly reduced in this warm low-lying region. Conversely, rising temperatures may have made some higher, cooler, parts of Zimbabwe more suitable for tsetse and led to the emergence of new disease foci.
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