ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2018
Estimating the cost of vaccine development against epidemic infectious diseases: a cost minimisation study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 110 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
110 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The role of pharmacists and pharmacy team members in the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery of outbreaks - a global rapid systematic review.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): a systematic review for potential vaccines.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Pooled it
- Development of a pandemic H5N1 influenza vaccine using MDCK suspension cells: A scalable and efficient production platform.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- From vaccine availability to effective deployment: Closing the arboviral vaccine access gap.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Hendra and Nipah viruses: Biosafety evidence for risk-based containment, inactivation practices, and one health preparedness.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- Techno-economic evaluation of Islamic-compliant cell-based influenza vaccine production using AGE1.CR cell line in comparison to the current production using MDCK cell line.Bioprocess and biosystems engineering · 2026Article
- CRISPR-Cas9: Genome Engineering and Future Vaccine Applications.Molecular biotechnology · 2026Review
- Vaccines as Global Health Security Infrastructure: Insights from a Descriptive Analysis of Vaccines Europe Members' Clinical Pipelines.Vaccines · 2026Review
- Global vaccine development.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Innovation in active and passive immunisation of people who are immunocompromised: a call to action.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2026Review
- The era of "Infectious Diseases+" has arrived: multi-disciplinary integration in pediatric infectious disease prevention and control.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2026Review
- Is the reverse vaccinology idea becoming exhausted?Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
- Assessing CD8Clinical & translational immunology · 2026Article
- A One Health trial design to accelerate Lassa fever vaccines.Nature medicine · 2026Article
- Development and validation of the Oxford Benchmark Scale for Rating Vaccine Technologies (OBSRVT), a scale for assessing public attitudes to next-generation vaccine delivery technologies.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- De-risking vaccine development: lessons, challenges, and prospects.NPJ vaccines · 2025Review
- Characterisation of an influenza B virus-derived peptide presented by HLA-B*18:01.The Biochemical journal · 2025Article
- Applications of virus-like particles in the prevention of protozoan parasite infection.Nanomedicine (London, England) · 2025Review
- The role of the right valuation method in setting the firm's break-even price for mpox (and other) vaccines.BMJ global health · 2025Review
- Investment Opportunities for mRNA Technology in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Key Findings and Future Perspectives.Vaccines · 2025Article
50 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations was established in 2016, to develop vaccines that can contribute to preparedness for outbreaks of epidemic infectious diseases. Evidence on vaccine development costs for such diseases is scarce. Our goal was to estimate the minimum cost for achieving vaccine research and development preparedness targets in a portfolio of 11 epidemic infectious diseases, accounting for vaccine pipeline constraints and uncertainty in research and development preparedness outcomes.
methodsWe assembled a pipeline of 224 vaccine candidates from preclinical through to phase 2 for 11 priority epidemic infectious diseases. We used a linear regression model to identify drivers of development costs from preclinical through to end of phase 2a. Drawing from published estimates of vaccine research and development probabilities of success, we simulated costs for advancing these 224 vaccine candidates through to the end of phase 2a. We combined these findings to determine minimum costs for progressing at least one vaccine through to the end of phase 2a per epidemic infectious disease by means of a stochastic optimisation model.
findingsThe cost of developing a single epidemic infectious disease vaccine from preclinical trials through to end of phase 2a is US$31-68 million (US$14-159 million range), assuming no risk of failure. We found that previous licensure experience and indirect costs are upward drivers of research and development costs. Accounting for probability of success, the average cost of successfully advancing at least one epidemic infectious disease vaccine through to the end of phase 2a can vary from US$84-112 million ($23 million-$295 million range) starting from phase 2 to $319-469 million ($137 million-$1·1 billion range) starting from preclinical. This cost includes the cumulative cost of failed vaccine candidates through the research and development process. Assuming these candidates and funding were made available, progressing at least one vaccine through to the end of phase 2a for each of the 11 epidemic infectious diseases would cost a minimum of $2·8-3·7 billion ($1·2 billion-$8·4 billion range).
interpretationOur analysis provides new evidence on vaccine research and development pipelines and associated costs for 11 epidemic infectious diseases, highlighting both funding needs and research and development gaps for achieving vaccine research and development preparedness targets.
fundingThis work was partly supported by the Research Council of Norway through the Global Health and Vaccination Programme GLOBVAC.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.