ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018
Epidemiology of the silent polio outbreak in Rahat, Israel, based on modeling of environmental surveillance data.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 90 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
90 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Wastewater Surveillance for Early Warning of Infectious Disease Outbreaks: A Systematic Review of Evidence and Implications for One Health Surveillance.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Pooled it
- Wastewater surveillance to infer COVID-19 transmission: A systematic review.The Science of the total environment · 2022Pooled it
- Waterborne diseases and climate change.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Review
- Development and Validation of a Quantitative RT-qPCR Panel for the Detection and Monitoring of Polioviruses in Wastewater Samples.Microorganisms · 2026Article
- Inclusion of Physical-Chemical Water Quality Measurements Can Improve Associations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA Levels in Wastewater and COVID-19 Cases within Smaller Sewersheds.Journal of environmental engineering (New York, N.Y.) · 2025Article
- How local health departments use wastewater surveillance data for public health planning and intervention in New York State.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Pandemic monitoring with global aircraft-based wastewater surveillance networks.Nature medicine · 2025Article
- Detection of Measles Virus Genotype A in a Non-Endemic Wastewater Setting: Insights from Measles Wastewater and Environmental Monitoring in Canada's Capital Region.Environmental science & technology letters · 2025Article
- Polio Epidemiology: Strategies and Challenges for Polio Eradication Post the COVID-19 Pandemic.Vaccines · 2024Article
- Article
- Optimization and performance analytics of global aircraft-based wastewater surveillance networks.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Article
- Wastewater-based surveillance as a tool for public health action: SARS-CoV-2 and beyond.Clinical microbiology reviews · 2024Review
- The Israeli health system's rapid responses during the COVID-19 pandemic.Israel journal of health policy research · 2024Article
- Non-detection of emerging and re-emerging pathogens in wastewater surveillance to confirm absence of transmission risk: A case study of polio in New York.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- An interpretative review of the wastewater-based surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2: where do we stand on its presence and concern?Frontiers in microbiology · 2024Review
- Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Simultaneous detection and quantification of multiple pathogen targets in wastewater.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Wastewater analysis of Mpox virus in a city with low prevalence of Mpox disease: an environmental surveillance study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and inactivation in water and wastewater: review on analytical methods, limitations and future research recommendations.Emerging microbes & infections · 2023Review
30 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
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Abstract
Israel experienced an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in 2013-2014, detected through environmental surveillance of the sewage system. No cases of acute flaccid paralysis were reported, and the epidemic subsided after a bivalent oral polio vaccination (bOPV) campaign. As we approach global eradication, polio will increasingly be detected only through environmental surveillance. We developed a framework to convert quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) cycle threshold data into scaled WPV1 and OPV1 concentrations for inference within a deterministic, compartmental infectious disease transmission model. We used this approach to estimate the epidemic curve and transmission dynamics, as well as assess alternate vaccination scenarios. Our analysis estimates the outbreak peaked in late June, much earlier than previous estimates derived from analysis of stool samples, although the exact epidemic trajectory remains uncertain. We estimate the basic reproduction number was 1.62 (95% CI 1.04-2.02). Model estimates indicate that 59% (95% CI 9-77%) of susceptible individuals (primarily children under 10 years old) were infected with WPV1 over a little more than six months, mostly before the vaccination campaign onset, and that the vaccination campaign averted 10% (95% CI 1-24%) of WPV1 infections. As we approach global polio eradication, environmental monitoring with qPCR can be used as a highly sensitive method to enhance disease surveillance. Our analytic approach brings public health relevance to environmental data that, if systematically collected, can guide eradication efforts.
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