ArticleBMC medicine2018
Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.
Article in BMC medicine, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern Europe.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Review
- Comparing sources of mobility for modelling the epidemic spread of Zika virus in Colombia.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Urbanization favors the proliferation of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus in urban areas of Miami-Dade County, Florida.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A review exploring the overarching burden of Zika virus with emphasis on epidemiological case studies from Brazil.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2021Review
- Comprehensive Profiling of Zika Virus Risk with Natural and Artificial Mitigating Strategies, United States.Emerging infectious diseases · 2020Article
- El Niño Southern Oscillation, overseas arrivals and imported chikungunya cases in Australia: A time series analysis.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- De Novo Isolation & Affinity Maturation of yeast-displayed Virion-binding human fibronectin domains by flow cytometric screening against Virions.Journal of biological engineering · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundLocal mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has been reported in two counties in the contiguous United States (US), prompting the issuance of travel, prevention, and testing guidance across the contiguous US. Large uncertainty, however, surrounds the quantification of the actual risk of ZIKV introduction and autochthonous transmission across different areas of the US.
methodsWe present a framework for the projection of ZIKV autochthonous transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 epidemic using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model accounting for seasonal, environmental, and detailed population data. The model generates an ensemble of travel-related case counts and simulates their potential to have triggered local transmission at the individual level in the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.
resultsWe estimate the risk of ZIKV introduction and local transmission at the county level and at the 0.025° × 0.025° cell level across the contiguous US. We provide a risk measure based on the probability of observing local transmission in a specific location during a ZIKV epidemic modeled after the epidemic observed during the years 2015-2016. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the model allows us to generate statistical estimates of the number of ZIKV introductions leading to local transmission in each location. We find that the risk was spatially heterogeneously distributed and concentrated in a few specific areas that account for less than 1% of the contiguous US population. Locations in Texas and Florida that have actually experienced local ZIKV transmission were among the places at highest risk according to our results. We also provide an analysis of the key determinants for local transmission and identify the key introduction routes and their contributions to ZIKV transmission in the contiguous US.
conclusionsThis framework provides quantitative risk estimates, fully captures the stochasticity of ZIKV introduction events, and is not biased by the under-ascertainment of cases due to asymptomatic cases. It provides general information on key risk determinants and data with potential uses in defining public health recommendations and guidance about ZIKV risk in the US.
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