Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30325773›Full record

ArticleAIDS (London, England)2019

Projected population-wide impact of antiretroviral therapy-linked isoniazid preventive therapy in a high-burden setting.

Emily A Kendall, Andrew S Azman, Gary Maartens, Andrew Boulle, Robert J Wilkinson, David W Dowdy, Molebogeng X Rangaka

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.6field-weighted citation impact, top 28% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 9 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. The Impact of Preventive Treatment for Multidrug- and Rifampin-Resistant Tuberculosis Exceeds Trial-Based Estimates.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

Emily A KendallDivision of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.
Andrew S AzmanDivision of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Gary MaartensDivision of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town.
Andrew BoulleCentre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, Department of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town.
Robert J WilkinsonWellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
David W DowdyDivision of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Molebogeng X RangakaWellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
University of Cape Town · ZAJohns Hopkins University · USJohns Hopkins Medicine · USWellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa · ZA

Funding

Validation and Application of a Model for Human-like TB Latency in RabbitsU19AI111276 · NIAID · RBHS-NEW JERSEY MEDICAL SCHOOL · PI ALLAND, DAVID, HORSBURGH, CHARLES ROBERT · 2014 to 2020
$23.3M
Translational modeling of individual- and population-level outcomes of novel tuberculosis drug regimensK08AI127908 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI KENDALL, EMILY A · 2017 to 2021
$879k
Medical Research Council MC_U117588499NIAID NIH HHS K08 AI127908NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI111276Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 104803Wellcome Trust 203135
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveBoth isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduce tuberculosis risk in individuals living with HIV. We sought to estimate the broader, population-wide impact of providing a pragmatically implemented 12-month IPT regimen to ART recipients in a high-burden community.

designDynamic transmission model of a tuberculosis (TB)-HIV epidemic, calibrated to site-specific, historical epidemiologic and clinical trial data from Khayelitsha, South Africa.

methodsWe projected the 5-year impact of delivering a 12-month IPT regimen community-wide to 85% of new ART initiators and 15%/year of those already on ART, accounting for IPT-attributable reductions in TB infection, progression, and transmission. We also evaluated scenarios of continuously-delivered IPT, ongoing ART scale-up, and lower tuberculosis incidence.

resultsUnder historical (early 2010) ART coverage, this ART-linked IPT intervention prevented one tuberculosis case per 18 [95% credible interval (CrI) 11-29] people treated. It lowered TB incidence by a projected 23% (95% CrI 14-30%) among people receiving ART, and by 5.2% (95% CrI 2.9-8.7%) in the total population. Continuous IPT reduced the number needed to treat to prevent one case of TB to 10 (95% CrI 7-16), though it required 74% more person-years of therapy (95% CrI 64-94%) to prevent one TB case, relative to 12-month therapy. Under expanding ART coverage, the tuberculosis incidence reduction achieved by 12-month IPT grew to 7.6% (95% CrI 4.3-12.6%). Effect sizes were similar in a simulated setting of lower TB incidence.

conclusionsIPT in conjunction with ART reduces tuberculosis incidence among those who receive therapy and has additional impact on tuberculosis transmission in the population.

Indexed as

AdultAnti-Retroviral AgentsAntitubercular AgentsChemopreventionDisease Transmission, InfectiousHIV InfectionsHumansIncidenceIsoniazidModels, StatisticalSouth AfricaTreatment OutcomeTuberculosisYoung AdultAnti-Retroviral AgentsAntitubercular AgentsIsoniazid

Identifiers

PMID30325773
PMCPMC6355370
OpenAlexW2897213288

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.