Morphological MRI-based features provide pretreatment survival prediction in glioblastoma.

objectivesWe wished to determine whether tumor morphology descriptors obtained from pretreatment magnetic resonance images and clinical variables could predict survival for glioblastoma patients.

methodsA cohort of 404 glioblastoma patients (311 discoveries and 93 validations) was used in the study. Pretreatment volumetric postcontrast T1-weighted magnetic resonance images were segmented to obtain the relevant morphological measures. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, correlations, and Harrell's concordance indexes (c-indexes) were used for the statistical analysis.

resultsA linear prognostic model based on the outstanding variables (age, contrast-enhanced (CE) rim width, and surface regularity) identified a group of patients with significantly better survival (p < 0.001, HR = 2.57) with high accuracy (discovery c-index = 0.74; validation c-index = 0.77). A similar model applied to totally resected patients was also able to predict survival (p < 0.001, HR = 3.43) with high predictive value (discovery c-index = 0.81; validation c-index = 0.92). Biopsied patients with better survival were well identified (p < 0.001, HR = 7.25) by a model including age and CE volume (c-index = 0.87).

conclusionsSimple linear models based on small sets of meaningful MRI-based pretreatment morphological features and age predicted survival of glioblastoma patients to a high degree of accuracy. The partition of the population using the extent of resection improved the prognostic value of those measures. KEY POINTS: • A combination of two MRI-based morphological features (CE rim width and surface regularity) and patients' age outperformed previous prognosis scores for glioblastoma. • Prognosis models for homogeneous surgical procedure groups led to even more accurate survival prediction based on Kaplan-Meier analysis and concordance indexes.