ArticleScientific reports2018
Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.
Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Advanced Artificial Intelligence Technologies Transforming Contemporary Pharmaceutical Research.Bioengineering (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Simulation of the COVID-19 patient flow and investigation of the future patient arrival using a time-series prediction model: a real-case study.Medical & biological engineering & computing · 2022Article
- Estimating COVID-19Machine learning with applications · 2021Article
- Population cycles and outbreaks of small rodents: ten essential questions we still need to solve.Oecologia · 2021Review
- Enhanced Gaussian process regression-based forecasting model for COVID-19 outbreak and significance of IoT for its detection.Applied intelligence (Dordrecht, Netherlands) · 2021Article
- Ecological forecasts reveal limitations of common model selection methods: predicting changes in beaver colony densities.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2021Article
- Incorporating capture heterogeneity in the estimation of autoregressive coefficients of animal population dynamics using capture-recapture data.Ecology and evolution · 2020Article
- Habitat selection patterns are density dependent under the ideal free distribution.The Journal of animal ecology · 2020Article
- Rodent population cycle as a determinant of gastrointestinal nematode abundance in a low-arctic population of the red fox.International journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There was a distinct difference in model transferability between seasons. Summer dynamics had good temporal transferability, displaying ecological models' potential to be temporally transferable. However, the winter dynamics transferred poorly. This discrepancy is likely due to a temporal inconsistency in the ability of the climate predictor (i.e. elevation) to reflect the winter conditions affecting lemmings both directly and indirectly. We conclude that there is an urgent need for data and models that yield better predictions of winter processes, in particular in face of the expected rapid climate change in the Arctic.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.