Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30309464›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American College of Cardiology2018

Genomic Risk Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease in 480,000 Adults: Implications for Primary Prevention.

Michael Inouye, Gad Abraham, Christopher P Nelson, Angela M Wood, Michael J Sweeting, Frank Dudbridge, Florence Y Lai, Stephen Kaptoge, Marta Brozynska, Tingting Wang and 16 more

2 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 482 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
482citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04331535 naunknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2020, after this paper: background citation

Pragmatic Randomized Trial of Polygenic Risk Scoring for Common Diseases in Primary Care

TypeinterventionalSponsorBoston VA Research Institute, Inc.Ran2020 to 2025Enrolled1,076ConditionsCoronary Artery Disease, Atrial Fibrillation, Type 2 Diabetes, Colorectal CancerArmsPolygenic risk score (PRS)
NCT07039123 naactive not recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Polygenic Risk Score to Optimize Primary Prevention in Intermediate Risk Population (PERSONAL)

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of BernRan2025 to 2027Enrolled205ConditionsPrimary Prevention of Cardiovascular DiseaseArmsPolygenic Risk Score for Coronary Artery Disease (PRS-CAD), Standardized Risk Communication Tool (SCORE2)
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

482 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Trial
  7. Polygenic risk, aspirin, and primary prevention of coronary artery disease.European heart journal. Cardiovascular pharmacotherapy · 2025
    Trial
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  11. Review
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  16. The role of polygenic risk in Alzheimer's disease prediction for African Americans.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026
    Observational
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422 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

26 authors.

Michael InouyeCambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, and Cambridge, United Kingdom; Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Clinical Pathology and School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; The Alan Turing Institute, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: mi336@medschl.cam.ac.uk.
Gad AbrahamCambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, and Cambridge, United Kingdom; Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Clinical Pathology and School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia. Electronic address: gad.abraham@baker.edu.au.
Christopher P NelsonDepartment of Cardiovascular Sciences and NIHR Leicester Biomedical Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
Angela M WoodMRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Michael J SweetingMRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Frank DudbridgeMRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
Florence Y LaiDepartment of Cardiovascular Sciences and NIHR Leicester Biomedical Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
Stephen KaptogeMRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit (NIHR BTRU) in Donor Health and Genomics at the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Marta BrozynskaCambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, and Cambridge, United Kingdom; Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Tingting WangCambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, and Cambridge, United Kingdom; Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Shu YeDepartment of Cardiovascular Sciences and NIHR Leicester Biomedical Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
Thomas R WebbDepartment of Cardiovascular Sciences and NIHR Leicester Biomedical Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
Martin K RutterDivision of Diabetes, Endocrinology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, United Kingdom; Manchester Diabetes Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, United Kingdom.
Ioanna TzoulakiDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece.
Riyaz S PatelInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Barts Heart Centre, St. Bartholomew's Hospital, London, United Kingdom.
Ruth J F LoosCharles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Mindich Child Health and Development Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York.
Bernard KeavneyDivision of Cardiovascular Sciences, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, United Kingdom.
Harry HemingwayThe Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research and the National Institute for Health Research, Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
John ThompsonDepartment of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
Hugh WatkinsDivision of Cardiovascular Medicine, Radcliffe Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; The Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Panos DeloukasWilliam Harvey Research Institute, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom.
Emanuele Di AngelantonioMRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit (NIHR BTRU) in Donor Health and Genomics at the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Adam S ButterworthMRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit (NIHR BTRU) in Donor Health and Genomics at the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
John DaneshMRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit (NIHR BTRU) in Donor Health and Genomics at the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom.
Nilesh J SamaniDepartment of Cardiovascular Sciences and NIHR Leicester Biomedical Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom. Electronic address: njs@leicester.ac.uk.
UK Biobank CardioMetabolic Consortium CHD Working Group

Funding

British Heart Foundation CH/12/2/29428British Heart Foundation RG/13/13/30194British Heart Foundation RG/14/5/30893British Heart Foundation RG/15/12/31616British Heart Foundation SP/16/4/32697Medical Research Council G0701619Medical Research Council MC_PC_17228Medical Research Council MC_QA137853Medical Research Council MR/K006584/1Medical Research Council MR/L003120/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCoronary artery disease (CAD) has substantial heritability and a polygenic architecture. However, the potential of genomic risk scores to help predict CAD outcomes has not been evaluated comprehensively, because available studies have involved limited genomic scope and limited sample sizes.

objectivesThis study sought to construct a genomic risk score for CAD and to estimate its potential as a screening tool for primary prevention.

methodsUsing a meta-analytic approach to combine large-scale, genome-wide, and targeted genetic association data, we developed a new genomic risk score for CAD (metaGRS) consisting of 1.7 million genetic variants. We externally tested metaGRS, both by itself and in combination with available data on conventional risk factors, in 22,242 CAD cases and 460,387 noncases from the UK Biobank.

resultsThe hazard ratio (HR) for CAD was 1.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.68 to 1.73) per SD increase in metaGRS, an association larger than any other externally tested genetic risk score previously published. The metaGRS stratified individuals into significantly different life course trajectories of CAD risk, with those in the top 20% of metaGRS distribution having an HR of 4.17 (95% CI: 3.97 to 4.38) compared with those in the bottom 20%. The corresponding HR was 2.83 (95% CI: 2.61 to 3.07) among individuals on lipid-lowering or antihypertensive medications. The metaGRS had a higher C-index (C = 0.623; 95% CI: 0.615 to 0.631) for incident CAD than any of 6 conventional factors (smoking, diabetes, hypertension, body mass index, self-reported high cholesterol, and family history). For men in the top 20% of metaGRS with >2 conventional factors, 10% cumulative risk of CAD was reached by 48 years of age.

conclusionsThe genomic score developed and evaluated here substantially advances the concept of using genomic information to stratify individuals with different trajectories of CAD risk and highlights the potential for genomic screening in early life to complement conventional risk prediction.

Indexed as

Coronary Artery DiseaseGenomicsFemaleGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansMaleMass ScreeningMiddle AgedMultifactorial InheritancePredictive Value of TestsPrimary PreventionResearch DesignRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsUnited Kingdomcoronary artery diseasegenomic risk predictionprimary prevention

Identifiers

PMID30309464
PMCPMC6176870

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.